2026 will see unprecedented political and economic uncertainty — journalist

Journalist Vitaly Portnikov stated this on Espreso TV.

"I think the chaos that engulfed the world in 2025 will only intensify in 2026. What could this mean? In the classic scenario - continuation of efforts for a negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia without any real, concrete results. Increased pressure from the U.S. and other Western countries on Russia, so that Russia realizes the full danger of this pressure for its economy. Continuation of combat operations, possibly less intensive than those we saw in recent months of 2025. Continuation of Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure aimed at creating blackout conditions, at least on the Left Bank of the Dnipro, and disrupting Ukraine's energy structure. Continuation of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure to reduce Russia's oil revenue, which will already be decreasing as a result of U.S. sanctions - both those already imposed and those yet to come," Vitaly Portnikov noted.

In his view, overall there may be manifestations of Russia's hybrid warfare against European countries. These manifestations may intensify in parallel with Russia's realization that it cannot achieve any serious results from advancing its forces on the Russian-Ukrainian front and that its efforts to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure are not leading to Ukraine's capitulation or peace on Russian terms. And this is only part of the chaos.

"Chaos among Western allies may intensify due to the fact that the worst-case scenario could be the U.S. attempting to use force regarding Greenland and gaining control over this island. This could lead to a serious conflict that would call into question NATO's existence and lead to a split in the EU. I think, in principle, this won't happen, but there's a probability of such a development with the subsequent slide of the collective West into division and lack of understanding. Additionally, quite serious events will occur related to the escalation of relations between the U.S. and China, because China will try to use this situation to assert its positions in the region. I won't say that a conflict over Taiwan could happen this year, but Xi Jinping's attempts to blackmail Trump with such a conflict will intensify," the journalist commented.

According to him, all this will happen amid the U.S. election campaign. And many actions by the American administration that may seem illogical from a foreign policy perspective will be absolutely logical from the standpoint of Donald Trump's vision of how this campaign should end. Trump will run this campaign under the slogan: "If you don't elect Republicans, I will be impeached."

"It's unclear to what extent one can say that Trump's impeachment is a reality, for one reason. We now see that Democrats have every chance - though it's still January and everything will happen in November - to gain a majority in the House of Representatives. But for impeachment to become reality and for Trump to leave the Oval Office, even with a positive decision by the House of Representatives, you need 67 Senate votes for impeachment to occur and for Trump to cease being U.S. President. I don't yet understand where Democrats could get the opportunity to obtain that many Senate seats. But the very fact of such a political struggle, where the House of Representatives will block all administration actions, will turn Trump into a 'lame duck' even before the 2028 presidential elections and will call into question the value of the successor candidate he puts forward from the Republican Party. This in turn will lead to confrontation both among Republicans and among Democrats, who will be searching for a leader capable of winning. In other words, this is a year of political and economic uncertainty and possibly catastrophes," Portnikov concluded.