Why Kremlin is buying time before delivering its “peace memorandum”

According to the author of the Resurgam channel, offering expert commentary on international politics, many of Russia’s recent moves are part of a political spectacle aimed at Donald Trump, driven by both Ukraine’s and Russia’s competing stakes in the American presidential race. 

Europe currently plays a critical role for Ukraine — not only as a military and economic ally, but as a political counterweight. “Europe’s position is to ‘anchor’ the U.S.,” pulling American foreign policy, including Trump's, back into a more realistic framework, says Resurgam.

In recent days, Kyiv and European capitals have collectively pressured Moscow to deliver the “promised document with its positions.” However, the Kremlin continues to delay. Russia’s refusal to provide its version of the memorandum — ostensibly about ending the war — signals that it is still calibrating its approach.

As Resurgam explains, “Moscow is not handing over the memorandum to the White House because it does not know which option to choose in order to stay in the game.” If the demands are too extreme, they may alienate Trump; if too modest, they lower the Kremlin’s negotiating position. The Soviet diplomatic doctrine taught never to reduce demands until they reach the level of item-by-item discussion.

Resurgam believes multiple versions of the memorandum exist. “Depending on the reactions the Russians gather through formal and informal methods over these four days, they will choose the memorandum for Monday.” This is essentially a SWOT analysis operation.

This strategy explains why Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, prematurely announced that Medinsky — long viewed by the West as an unconstructive negotiator — will lead the Russian delegation. Traditionally, the Kremlin keeps its delegation secret until the last moment, another holdover from Soviet negotiation tactics.

If this gambit succeeds — meaning the U.S. doesn’t react strongly to Medinsky’s appointment, and Ukraine doesn’t receive the document in advance — Russia will present a “maximalist option.” Ukraine will predictably reject it, giving Moscow a pretext to claim that Kyiv is sabotaging talks. “Ukrainian diplomats are demanding the document in advance,” Resurgam notes, “and saying that if it is not provided, it will be considered sabotage on the part of Moscow.”

Resurgam also emphasizes the need for a third-party delegation — European or American — to be present in any negotiations. This would disrupt Russia’s plan to corner Ukraine into accepting harsh terms while using information campaigns to “correctly” deliver the narrative to Trump. “The presence of a third delegation undermines the Kremlin's plans,” Resurgam stresses.

Interestingly, Resurgam links Trump’s recent “crazy” comments on Putin to the quiet removal of Witkoff from the negotiation track. Lavrov called Rubio directly, and Kellogg is once again publicly responding to Russian officials. Rubio and Kellogg had reportedly been slated to represent the U.S. in Vatican-based talks — though that location may now be changing.

Rubio, notably, has intensified his outreach to Europe. After a meeting with the German Foreign Minister, the latter warned Putin to expect new sanctions and confirmed, “We have a common position with the U.S. on Ukraine.” The meeting, which lasted 45 minutes, was reportedly focused exclusively on Ukraine. Resurgam suggests that Zelenskyy likely knew the meeting’s results while still in Berlin.

Meanwhile, Trump recently praised Witkoff for his “incredible work.” But according to Resurgam, such praise may be a red flag. “Trump’s praise in this case is not a distinction, but a way to avoid public criticism for an ineffective appointment. The Moor has done his duty — the Moor can go.”

This pattern mirrors the case of Musk, whose departure was predicted by Resurgam months ago. 

“And the process surrounding Witkoff,” Resurgam concludes, “seems to have begun.”