Key strategic decisions and dispositions of the parties in early 2023.
1. The delivery of tanks is the final proof that the West has decided to end the war on the battlefield this year. This means that Ukraine will receive all the weapons it needs to defeat Russia on its territory. This includes aircraft, long-range missiles, etc. However, these weapons will be provided gradually. The West is following a basic model, the essence of which is to make Putin recognize that he cannot win the war. Therefore, with every new decision or step, they send him such a signal and look at his decision. If it doesn't lead to anything, they raise the stakes.
“The delivery of tanks is the final proof that the West has decided to end the war on the battlefield this year.”
2. Sanctions will take on real forms. On February 5, sanctions banning the transportation of petroleum products coming into effect. This decision could deal a very serious blow to the Russian economy, as it could reduce revenues by 40%. At the same time, the West is tightening control over compliance with the sanctions. This means that there will be tough conversations with India and China this year. Although the latter are already reducing their purchases of Russian oil and bringing its price down to the level of production costs.
“Mobilization and training of soldiers in Ukraine becomes a decisive factor in victory.”
3. The mobilization and training of soldiers in Ukraine is becoming a decisive factor in victory. When they said in December that mobilization was not needed, they meant that we had enough forces against the enemy troops. But the enemy deployed its mobilized reserves immediately without proper preparation. As a result, we also suffered significant losses and weakened our brigades. They need to be restored. We also started using our offensive potential to defend Bakhmut and other areas. This means we have to build up new capabilities and train personnel to use Western offensive weapons. We have to accept the fact that a significant number of Ukrainians will have to fight. And this is a matter of our victory or defeat. We did not choose war, but we have to fight to survive. Therefore, the more men come to serve, the closer our victory is.
“Everyone has a threshold for losses. For Russians, it is very high, but it also exists.”
4. Russia is increasingly driving itself into a trap. Everyone has a threshold of losses. For the Russians, it is very high, but it also exists. According to intelligence, Wagner Group has suffered such losses that it cannot continue to recruit convicts at the same rate. This means that the tactics used at Soledar and Bakhmut, when thousands of soldiers were driven to their deaths under the threat of execution for revealing our positions and weakening defense at the cost of their lives, are coming to an end. Russian regular troops cannot fight in this way, and the conflicts between Teplinsky and Gerasimov are a clear proof of this. Moreover, this tactic cannot be widely used, as the Russians have big problems with communication, and the Wagner soldiers are attacking with cheap devices that are easily bugged.
“The only thing that allowed the Russians to move forward and inflict losses on us was their artillery, which is now getting exhausted.”
5. Amid the lack of visible successes, the Russian military elites begin to squabble. The disaster general Surovikin is removed, and with him Kadyrov is removed from the public airwaves. Prigozhin is in open conflict with Shoigu and Gerasimov. Together, they are in public conflict with Girkin. Putin continues to rearrange the beds in the brothel, and in general, nothing changes on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the only thing that allowed the Russians to advance and inflict losses on us, the artillery, is now getting exhausted. If in the summer they fired 20 to our 1, in December it was 5 to 1, and in March it will be 2 or even 1 to 1. Russian generals cannot fight without an artillery rampart.
6. Putin's goals at this stage of the war remain vague and are formulated as 'not to lose'. In fact, the Russians are preparing to defend the seized territories, intimidate us with possible new offensives, and negotiate from a favorable position. This is the only thing that can be rational. But since rationality is not their strong suit, it is difficult to guess what is in the old man's sick head.
“In the coming months, there will be battles for 'morale'”
7.In the coming months, there will be battles for 'morale'. None of the towns being stormed by the Russians currently play a strategic role, i.e., when a loss could lead to a defeat in the war. Therefore, the battles for these towns have the character of a struggle for the morale of the people. The capture of at least some settlements should confirm to the Russians that the 'special military operation' is 'going according to plan'. Instead, the defense of these towns keeps our morale up and our faith in victory. The longer the Russians are unable to capture anything, the closer the decline of Putin's morale and faith in Russia is. The more the Russian military will fight among themselves.
And the more successful our offensive will be.
About the author. Viktor Andrusov, political and public figure, analyst, publicist.
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.