What is realistic timeline for Mirage 2000-5F arrival in Ukraine?

Defense Express reported the information. 

In his evening address on November 29, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, which focused on strengthening Ukraine’s air defense, as well as “comprehensive defense support and accelerating the process of transferring Mirage aircraft.”

Such a statement could be seen merely as a reminder about the transfer of these aircraft to us. It also emphasizes that work on the Mirage supply to Ukraine is indeed actively underway, and we may soon see another type of fighter jet in service with the Ukrainian Air Force. At the very least, this statement provides an opportunity to revisit the timeline of public announcements and media reports regarding these aircraft over the past months.

The outlet recalled that French President Emmanuel Macron announced on June 6 that France would transfer Mirage 2000-5 aircraft to Ukraine within six months, targeting December 2023 due to training needs. However, in mid-July, French Ambassador Gaël Veyssière suggested a shorter timeline of just a few months, likely simple publicity. By October, Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu provided a more realistic projection, stating the aircraft are expected in the first quarter of 2025, with deliveries potentially stretching to the end of March due to preparation requirements.

“It’s also worth noting that while initial media reports mentioned only three Mirage 2000-5 aircraft for Ukraine’s Air Force, by November, information emerged that this number would at least double to six aircraft,” Defense Express noted.

The analysts in Defense Express conclude that a faster transfer of Mirage jets to Ukraine will likely involve a timeframe of one to one and a half months. Under optimistic forecasts, the aircraft could enter service with the Ukrainian Air Force between January and February. However, as experience often shows, such timelines tend to shift "to the right" rather than "to the left."