Espreso. Global

October 26-31 live war map: Avdiivka breaks records, prepares for potential siege

1 November, 2023 Wednesday

The Russian forces have altered their strategies for assaulting Avdiivka twice, but continue to incur significant losses. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has now focused on two key positions in south, while another gap has emerged in Crimea's air defense

October frontline update

In October, we witnessed a surge in Russian offensives. While the Ukrainian Armed Forces scaled back their counteroffensive activities in the south of Ukraine, the Russian forces, on the other hand, launched offensives across most of the front, especially in the Kupyansk, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka regions. However, their traditional tactics, often referred to as 'meat assaults', involving a large number of armored vehicles, resulted in significant losses for them, surpassing several monthly records.

In just one month, Ukrainian heroes managed to destroy 521 tanks, which accounts for over 20% of the total tanks on the frontlines. They also took out 843 armored vehicles, equal to 15% of the armored vehicles used in combat. In the context of these numbers, 773 destroyed artillery systems and nearly 23,000 enemy casualties (the second-highest count in the entire war) underscore the intense battles and the remarkable effectiveness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Avdiivka prepares for possible siege

After three weeks of intense fighting, the Russian Armed Forces faced unexpected setbacks in their attempts to capture Avdiivka. They lost 6,500 soldiers, 100 tanks, and 250 armored vehicles during this time.

In the course of the continuous attacks on the city, the Russian forces managed to extend their control area slightly around Krasnohorivka, which is north of Avdiivka. They also moved closer to the important coke plant, which serves as a key defense point for the city. They established positions on a spoil tip overlooking Avdiivka and approached the railway embankment, which now marks the front line.

Facing strong resistance in the north, the invaders shifted their focus to the southern front for a week, in the Vodyane and Opytne areas. However, they made limited progress here, only gaining a few hundred meters near the quarry northeast of Vodyane.

It's becoming evident that the battle for control of the coke plant will be the pivotal moment in the Avdiivka conflict, and preparations for this are currently underway.

At the same time, Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to break through Russian defenses on the southern outskirts of the city, heading towards the Spartak district of Donetsk, pushing the enemy back several hundred meters.

The primary goal for the Russian Federation now is to cross the railway and advance toward the villages of Stepne and Berdychi to disrupt the logistics of the city, which relies on the village of Orlivka. Unlike Bakhmut, which is often compared to Avdiivka in terms of defense, Avdiivka has limited logistical capabilities. The narrowest point through which supplies can reach the city is less than 10 km, with only 4-5 km of space on each side of the front lines. Any reduction in this distance significantly increases the risk of a city blockade. However, Avdiivka boasts a substantial industrial complex like Azovstal, where, with the right resources, we can sustain our defense for many months.

Renewed Russian offensive near Bakhmut

As reported by the General Staff, the enemy has strengthened its presence in Bakhmut and shifted from a defensive to an offensive stance. This development is most relevant to the northern part of the front near the city. However, their recent attacks in this area have been unsuccessful, resulting in nothing but death for the Russian forces.

On the southern front, the Ukrainian Armed Forces achieved a significant breakthrough by capturing the occupation strongholds to the east of Andriivka, including overcoming a water obstacle consisting of a series of lakes. Simultaneously, Ukrainian troops managed to advance to the south of Andriivka towards Kurdyumivka, which had been under constant pressure from the western side. With the ongoing efforts of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, it appears that the General Staff is planning to liberate Kurdyumivka and Ozaryanivka this year, which will greatly expand our offensive capabilities to the south from Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces counterattack in Tokmak and Berdyansk areas

Towards the end of October, the Ukrainian Armed Forces slowed down their counteroffensive in the southern region. The village of Robotyne has been the main focus of intense fighting for several weeks. In the western area, near Verbove, the battles continue with no significant changes. In the south, the enemy attempted a counterattack but didn't make any progress. On the eastern side, our troops concentrated on breaking through the enemy's defenses in the Nesteryanka and Kopani villages. They successfully managed to breach the enemy lines and establish a foothold in multiple areas between Robotyne and Kopani, as well as to the north of Kopani.

Meanwhile, about two weeks after the ATACMS attack on Berdyansk airfield, the invading troops decided to withdraw their helicopters from the city, realizing that it had become a vulnerable target with no strategic value.

The threat to Russian forces in Kherson region is growing stronger

On the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, the Russian invaders are increasingly troubled by the presence of Ukrainian troops. This week, there has been a change in leadership, with Colonel General Teplinsky taking command. He had previously overseen the withdrawal of troops from the right bank.

Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have gathered over a thousand soldiers on the islands and in the nearby villages. With the help of artillery and drones, they are continually moving and gaining control over parts of the Kherson region. Special forces have also carried out successful operations deep within the occupied territory, particularly near the villages of Krynky and Pidstepne, north of Oleshky. Ukrainian troops have not only held this strategic location for two months but have also been expanding it. This suggests that this operation may soon become a full-fledged counteroffensive.

Strikes by Ukrainian Armed Forces in Crimea

The situation in Crimea is closely connected to events in the Kherson region, forming part of a larger counteroffensive puzzle. Recently, our missiles targeted an air defense base near the village of Molochne, close to Saky, resulting in the destruction of the S-300 system. This inflicted a significant blow to the Russian Air Force's defense. Additionally, rockets were launched over Sevastopol, Novofedorivka, and Olenivka. However, aside from visible smoke plumes, there is currently no precise information regarding their impact points.

The maps were created based on information received from the General Staff of the Armed Ukrainian Forces, as well as other open and verified sources. However, the maps are not completely accurate and only conditionally reflect trends in the combat zone.

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