Russia's economic crisis may fuel Putin's war drive to resolve domestic turmoil — historian

Ukrainian and American historian Serhii Plokhy expressed this opinion in an interview with Vitaly Portnikov on Espreso TV.

"The reality is that for peace to happen, even a bad peace, Trump's desire or that of the United States is not enough. I've already mentioned that this is the biggest war in the world, or in Europe, since World War II. The closest parallel is the Korean War. There, both the war and peace negotiations dragged on for years. And peace actually came only when both sides realized they wouldn't be able to move the front line significantly. That they had far better chances as negotiators than as warriors. And as long as Putin holds onto the illusion that he can push the front line forward, from my perspective, we can basically forget even about a bad peace," he said.

Serhii Plokhy pointed out that a crisis in the Russian economy doesn't necessarily have to lead to an end to the fighting.

"In other words, the aggressor has no incentive to reconsider. We have very high hopes—myself included—that the Russian economy has finally begun to falter. What people have been talking about for months, for years, we're now seeing it happen today. But knowing Russian history and understanding the regime that exists today, an economic crisis doesn't necessarily have to lead to an end to military operations. It can actually fuel the desire to keep fighting as a way to deal with the internal crisis. It can lead to stopping the war only when there's both an economic crisis at home and no success on the front. So forcing Putin toward peace really needs to come from two components. The economy is extremely important, and it's finally moving in the right direction—the direction that's needed and desired, and that many people had hoped for. But as long as there's momentum and the front line keeps moving... I don't see any willingness for peace in Putin, no matter how many times Trump sends Witkoff, no matter how much Witkoff smiles, no matter how much Jared Kushner tries to reinforce his charisma with some business approach—I simply don't see Putin agreeing based on a struggling economy alone," the historian noted.