Putin's global influence wanes as key allies falter, Trump tests Moscow's resolve

The Washington Post reported the information.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin's international credibility is eroding as allies across the globe face unprecedented challenges and Moscow appears unable or unwilling to provide meaningful support, according to political analysts and observers of Russian foreign policy.

The crisis of confidence comes as leaders Russia has cultivated relationships with — from Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro to embattled Iranian officials — find themselves increasingly vulnerable to U.S. pressure. Putin's response to these developments has been notably muted, raising questions about Russia's capacity as a reliable ally and protector.

"Russia is obliged to do something horrible to restore her credibility. It is very sad that we have to use such kind of arguments. But we have no choice. Only brutality, force, mass destruction and cruelty matter in Trumplike world," Russian propagandist Alexander Dugin wrote on X, reflecting frustrations within pro-Kremlin circles.

Despite signing strategic partnership agreements with Venezuela and Iran last year, Putin remained conspicuously silent following Trump's capture of Maduro and Washington's support for Iranian anti-government protesters. On Thursday, he only requested that the United States comply with international law.

The Kremlin's measured response appears tied to Putin's desire to maintain working relations with Trump, even as U.S. actions directly challenge Russian interests. Earlier this month, American forces seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the Atlantic Ocean after a week-long chase involving a Russian nuclear submarine and aircraft. The vessel had been sanctioned for transporting illicit Iranian oil.

"Putin's reaction looks strange, but it's very logical: He doesn't attack Trump because he hopes for a symmetrical understanding of Russia's needs," said Vladimir Pastukhov, a Russian political scientist and professor at University College London. "Putin knows that if he overreacts, if he shows that it is painful for him, everyone will see his weakness."

The tanker seizure demonstrated that Trump does not view Russia's reach as seriously as Moscow does and is unafraid to challenge Putin directly. "Dancing with the tanker was a big diplomatic mistake by the Kremlin. This has caused serious reputational damage both externally and internally," said Putin critic and former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Another blow to Putin's credibility came when the Kremlin made easily disprovable claims that Ukraine had attempted to attack Putin's residence in Valdai. Trump publicly rejected the allegations after initially considering them.

"I am convinced that Trump no longer believes Putin, but this is not a reason for him to abandon his desire for deals, either economic and political," Khodorkovsky said. In a Reuters interview Thursday, Trump insisted Putin was ready for a peace deal and that Ukraine was the obstacle.

Russia has historically denied obvious examples of its culpability, from the 2014 MH-17 disaster to more recent incidents. However, after Russian air defenses mistakenly downed an Azerbaijan Airlines flight killing 38 people, Putin was forced to apologize following Azerbaijani outrage, attempting to shore up Russia's crumbling status in the Caucasus.

Moscow now confronts an unpredictable U.S. administration that has abandoned many traditional diplomatic norms, leaving Russian policymakers struggling to adapt. Moscow-based political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov wrote last week that the Kremlin's strategy of maintaining influence over Trump may not survive beyond the new year.

"All the laws are being broken, and Putin is in a pretty strange position right now," said a former senior Kremlin official speaking anonymously. "His priority for him is to finish this war with dignity."

As international norms collapse and the U.S. cultivates relationships with former Russian proxies like Belarus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, Russia's standing as a reliable partner has diminished significantly.

"Russia chooses horrible, inefficient partners because nobody else wants to be friends with Russia," said Alexander Gabuev, director of Carnegie's Russia Eurasia Center. "And when these regimes collapse, like we saw in Syria, it is beyond Russia's ability to fix it."

Venezuela's relationship with Russia historically demonstrated Moscow's reach into America's sphere of influence. "Now all of this rhetoric has been thrown spectacularly in the Kremlin's face," Gabuev added.

The international setbacks coincide with a population increasingly fed up with a seemingly endless war in Ukraine. Russia's invasion has now lasted longer than its World War II participation — a milestone that sparked criticism even within pro-war circles.

"In that war, the U.S.S.R. was victorious. Modern Russia, after 1,418 days of its war — the so-called 'special military operation' — has suffered defeat," wrote the author of the Telegram channel Our Regnum.

Military blogger Maksim Kalashnikov expressed deep pessimism on Telegram: "It is already clear that all the benefits of this war will be reaped by the United States and China, while Russians are left with blood, ruins, and losses."

Berlin-based political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann noted that recent polling revealed sharply increased pessimism in Russian society, with peace becoming "an almost universal desire."

"President Putin meanwhile is perceived as the embodiment of the status quo," Schulmann said. "Russian society, and perhaps the elites, have been drifting into a mindset where the president is both the guarantor of their position but also an impediment. He is now potentially being perceived as standing between them and peace."