Putin's dilemma: vassalage to China or United States

In summer – all hope rests on the summer offensive collapsing Ukraine's front, in winter – on strikes against energy infrastructure collapsing Ukraine's rear. And this has been going on for more than a year now. What will happen if the plan fails – Putin doesn't want to think about it, because there are no good scenarios for Russia there. 

Agreeing to a pause in the war – means facing colossal risks inside the country, when the fascistized population will need an explanation for why the "special military operation did not achieve its goals." Of course, propaganda could be deployed here to declare "victory," but there's also the economy, which is harder to deceive, and which will prove to Russians through their own pocketbooks that markets are lost, debts are enormous, and prices are high. 

"Putin's dilemma, surprisingly, is well understood and in his own way being exploited by Trump, who in case of peace offers Putin his personal "Marshall Plan" – joint economic projects that will bring him profit and patch up holes in the Russian budget."

But this means that Putin now has to choose between being a vassal of China today, when the war depends on how much oil China buys and how much dual-use technology it transfers, or – being a vassal of the U.S. tomorrow, when Trump takes control of developing Russian resources. 

Being a latent quasi-Nazi, Putin would probably choose the USA over China after all. But no one knows how long Trump will remain in power, because in the U.S., unlike China, elections happen, which can change the president, and accordingly all agreements along with him. 

Therefore Putin, not for the first time, will simply choose not to choose. 

And accordingly, the next round of negotiations in Miami will lead nowhere for now. Although Ukraine must stubbornly conduct such meetings with the Americans in order to demonstrate readiness for peace, preserve weapons supplies, and satisfy Trump's ego, who, like a capricious child, collects empty candy wrappers of compliments all over the world.

Source 

About the author. Serhiy Taran, political scientist.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.