For Putin, showdown with West is inevitable

"Great Britain, by all appearances, is already in a state of war with Russia," says the former head of British counterintelligence MI5 in today's Guardian interview.

Of course, the war that the British intelligence services see in their country is different from what every resident of Ukraine sees from their window. But it is hard to argue with the fact that everything is moving towards a real, major war in Europe.

"In Putin's understanding, war is the only form of Russia's existence. He is bored with living a normal, peaceful life; he "wants some action." Therefore, throughout his time in power, we have seen a gradual escalation."

First, there was the second Chechen war. It began with explosions in Moscow and other cities, organized by Russian special services. This "military injection" was enough for society for a while. When the effect wore off, the "little war" in Georgia appeared. Following that was "Crimea in its home harbor" and the "they are not there" forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. When the patriotic, Great-Russian frenzy subsided again, the "special military operation in Ukraine" began—another "three-day war."

As a result, the "three-day special military operation" failed—Ukraine preserved its independence. Then Putin moved to a new phase—a war of attrition. This is a war without clear military logic, as the Russians clearly lack the resources to capture Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Sumy—and they understand this. That is, now they are simply killing for the sake of killing, counting on a miracle—for example, the rise to power in Ukraine of pro-Russian forces that would turn the country into a "friendly" one (like Belarus).

Every time patriotic fervor in Russian society subsides, Putin invents a new form of military escalation. But as of 2025, everything that could be done in Ukraine in a military sense has already been done. Only nuclear strikes remain—which, of course, will not create a "friendly Ukraine," but will have unacceptable political and military consequences for Putin himself.

"Due to a crisis of ideas, Moscow is looking beyond its western borders. Drones across Europe—from Poland to Scandinavia, military aircraft in NATO airspace, cyberattacks on infrastructure, explosions, poisonings, assassinations—all of this is part of the same play."

Therefore, intelligence chiefs and military officials in almost all EU countries are speaking directly about the risk of a major war in Europe. The only difference is the timeline: some claim the war has already begun, while others expect it to start in a couple of years. But the fact that a war in Europe is practically inevitable is obvious to many.

"And almost the only way for Europeans to avoid war on their own territory is to stop Putin now, in Ukraine."

For Putin, the inevitability of a confrontation with the West has long been an axiom. The only question is when. Internal problems, combined with a huge army, military-industrial potential, combat experience, and a belief in the weakness of Western leaders, are pushing him to act quickly. Much faster than some Western politicians act, who still want to allow themselves to be complacent.

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About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Ukrainian lawmaker.

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