Ukrainians should not expect counteroffensive to be same as in Kherson, Kharkiv regions; it is important to destroy Russia’s potential. Military expert Serhiy Zgurets

Explosions in Sevastopol

To summarize the week's events, the “kamikaze” drone attack on the fuel terminal in Sevastopol served as a outstanding end of the week. This attack on the complex of fuel storage vessels in Kozacha Bay was very successful. The Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine reported that the explosion in Sevastopol destroyed more than 10 tanks with oil products with a total capacity of 40,000 tons, which is quite a large volume. Intelligence representative Andriy Yusov commented on the incident, saying that "the explosions in Sevastopol are God's punishment for Uman.” It is believed that up to 10 Mugin-5 drones were launched in the attack - these are Chinese drones modified by the Ukrainian side, which have already been used to attack Crimea. This time, at least six of them passed through air defense in Crimea. This mission has created significant problems for the Russian support of the group on the peninsula. Actually, this is not the main base for the Black Sea Fleet, but an important trend here is that the problem for Russia is not the loss of fuel, but the loss of the ability to store large amounts of fuel in the future, which poses a real threat to Russian defense plans and reflects Ukraine’s strategy in preparing for the offensive. Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for the South Command, noted that the explosions at the occupiers' oil depot in Sevastopol are preparations for active offensive actions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And when we talk about the counteroffensive, we should keep in mind that there have been calls to keep it quiet, and when the leadership of the Ministry of Defense talks about it, we cannot help but mention it. Defense Minister Reznikov said that in a global sense we are ready for an offensive, but we are still preparing with the equipment that has been delivered recently.

Are Russian reserves running out?

Since February, Russia has been conducting a large-scale offensive in Donbas for the second time, and there are different assessments. On the one hand, it is said that the Russians are running out of strength and are ready to move to defense. Other conclusions are that with the available forces, they may continue to try to push Ukrainian defense back in the hottest spots - Bakhmut, Marinka and Avdiivka - in order to somehow influence the conduct of our spring-summer military operation. 

Roman Kostenko, MP, Secretary of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Colonel with the Security Service of Ukraine, believes that Russia is really trying to constrain Ukrainian forces. Russian forces have a task to capture Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka if possible by May 9. This is no longer a theater of war for Putin, but for the soldiers who are fighting there. For Putin, there is a struggle going on in his environment right now - who will be the first to bring him a May 9th gift so he can tell the Russians that they have achieved some kind of success.

The second army of the world is trying to capture small towns in order to show that thousands and thousands of their soldiers are not dying on Ukrainian soil in vain. That's why they are now conducting these offensives. Putin has not removed the task from his armed forces to completely seize the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions so that at least some of the goals of this "special military operation" can be achieved. He believes that from now on it will be easier. 

There will be no such counteroffensive as those in Kherson and Kharkiv regions

It is important to understand that there will be no more operations like those in Kherson and Kharkiv regions. Russia troops miscalculated their potential and did not expect resistance, and the Ukrainian army caused such losses on them that they stopped along the entire front line. When the troops were on the right bank, they did not move to the east or south, everything was frozen. It was only when the troops were withdrawn from the right bank that they reinforced the eastern frontline near Bakhmut, and then the advance began.

Russia was forced to withdraw its forces in order to succeed in a certain direction. And now this direction is Bakhmut. This will not happen again, because Russia has fortified defenses. We saw the same thing in the Kharkiv region - an adventure took place there, developed by General Syrsky. The first line of defense was broken through, Russian underestimated us and did not think we would go on the offensive. There were mostly the troops of the so-called DPR, and they could not withstand the resistance. And when this operation was planned, the Ukrainians expected to recapture Balakliya and a little beyond, but the frontline fell apart and the Ukrainian Armed Forces took advantage of the situation. Russia already realizes this. Now we need to plan even better. 

It is important to understand that a counteroffensive is a response to someone's offensive. It means striking at the enemy's offensive units, destroying their potential, knocking out their equipment. And only then can you attack. Right now, the enemy's offensive potential is being destroyed - in Bakhmut, for example. The same is true in the Zaporizhzhia region, with the help of high-precision weapons. In the Kherson region, too, equipment is being destroyed at a fairly high rate. And when this potential is destroyed, an analysis will be made and a path and direction of attack will be chosen.