Ukraine’s top commander assesses threats to northern Ukraine from Russia, Belarus

Commander of the AFU Joint Forces Lieutenant General Serhii Nayev reported this. 

“At the moment, there is no immediate threat of offensive ground forces against Ukraine from Belarus and Russia in the area of responsibility of the Northern Military Group. However, in case of an increase in the level of threats, it is envisaged to build up forces and means, as well as other practical measures to improve the defense capabilities of the group,” he said.

According to him, the intelligence service works continuously and exchanges information with foreign colleagues.

Nayev emphasized that the command and personnel are ready to repel any attacks.

What we currently know about the situation on the border with Belarus

At the start of the year, there were around 10,000-11,000 Russian troops in Belarus. In May, some of these soldiers who had completed training in Belarus were sent back to Russia. The plan was for them to join the occupying forces in eastern Ukraine.

On June 22, Andriy Demchenko, a spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, mentioned a small increase in the number of Russian troops in Belarus. However, he stated that the forces present there were not sufficient for another invasion of Ukraine.

On June 26, Serhii Nayev, the commander of the Combined Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, announced the completion of psychological and tactical obstacle courses in the northern part of the country. However, some Wagner mercenaries moved to Belarus after Prigozhin's rebellion.

On June 30, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, expressed concerns about Wagner and other potential threats. He emphasized the need to prepare for the worst-case scenarios while minimizing the potential consequences.

“I have many fears, and the Wagner Group is among them,” the general said.

“And they are not the only ones. If we start talking about it now, I'll get dizzy. Our task is to prepare for the worst and most possible scenarios. And we will try to minimize the possible consequences of what may happen,” he added.

In turn, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy instructed Zaluzhnyi and Nayev to strengthen the defense on the border with Belarus.