Ukraine’s NATO membership dilemma: Will security guarantees come?

So, as of now, the most likely outcome of the war is what was called the "Korean scenario" two years ago. In fact, Trump’s proposals closely resemble the events of 1953. To remind you, back then neither side could win, and Seoul changed hands four times. Despite the impossibility of victory, the South Koreans didn’t want peace, and instead, an armistice was signed by U.S. General Mark Wainclark. In essence, when the issue of recognizing Crimea came up, the U.S. response was something similar to the Korean history of signing an agreement.

In any case, in a situation where neither side is clearly defeated or victorious, the only possible outcome may be something similar to a Korean armistice.

In this situation, how should we, Ukrainians, behave? If our partners don’t offer any guarantees and refuse us NATO membership, what will we do? We’ll prepare for war every day! Clearly, we will strengthen our fortifications, develop our defense industry, implement missile programs, drone programs, and so on. It’s clear that Putin’s next attempt to invade will be even more disastrous for him than the first one. But the situation could take another turn—where we strengthen ourselves enough to reclaim our territory and one day simply announce a Special Military Operation (SMO). However, if we were NATO members, we couldn’t act this way because it would put the entire bloc in danger. Similarly, if we had security guarantees, we would have to coordinate these actions with our partners. And judging by how much they fear Putin, it’s unlikely they would agree to anything like that. It’s clear that such a situation would be very stable for Putin, allowing him to secure his gains for the long term.

But he has trapped himself. By declaring the unacceptability of NATO membership and other guarantees, he’s left us no choice but to arm ourselves to the teeth and prepare for a new war. This means he will also be forced to live in an arms race format and will fall even further behind China and the U.S. in development.

This dilemma exists today, but Putin won’t resolve it for now. He truly believes that we will soon collapse, that the front will crumble, and then there will be no issues with guarantees or our militarization. But come fall, he’ll have to rethink

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About the Author: Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, and journalist.

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