Ukraine will win whenever war ends: military results of first year

Ukrainian military analyst, CEO of Defense Express military expert group, Serhiy Zgurets has shared his take on the year of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.

Results of a year of full-scale war

The Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian people withstood the first invasion of the Russian army, which outnumbered the Ukrainian Armed Forces. During this time, Ukrainian Defense Forces inflicted significant losses on the enemy. Ukrainians drove them back from a large number of regions, conducted two powerful counter-offensive operations, and now we are confident that together with the West we will ensure the victory of Ukraine.

The enemy tried to implement a blitzkrieg strategy, realizing that they would allegedly be met with flowers. Everything went completely wrong, and when enemies tried to squeeze through the areas in 10 regions, the area of their presence was shrinking every month. The enemy's plans could not withstand the reality – the resistance of the Ukrainian people and the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Defense of northern Ukraine and Kyiv

Despite the official statements that we knew about the attack, we were not fully prepared for the actions from the north. The movement in this direction toward Kyiv was quite insidious and fast. Then we saw that the Russians were running out of fuel and power. Near Kyiv, we saw that the Ukrainian army was resisting and had all the capabilities to hold the line. The two artillery brigades that defended Kyiv provided a major turning point to prevent the enemy from reaching the city and implementing their plans. A combination of many factors – surprise, our resistance and luck – worked in our favor.

The first days were the most frightening, the most unpredictable. The resilience of the first stage allowed us to move to defensive actions according to plan. Although there were a number of exercises of the Armed Forces and redeployment a few hours before the missile strikes, which allowed us to preserve air defense and aviation. Still, the factor of unexpectedness remained, because Ukraine expected that the enemy would mainly attack in Donbas. The direction of the north was secondary, and the enemy used it.

In early April, the Russians started having major problems with both fuel and ammunition. When Ukrainians started destroying convoys along the roads, the enemy was advancing along the roads, and then it turned out that they had no fuel. The first months were extremely demonstrative – the resistance of the people was great and it really pushed the enemy to leave the three regions that we considered to be the main ones – Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy.

Then there was a pause, followed by the battle for Donbas, when the enemy reformatted, and then two counter offensives that allowed Ukraine to liberate the Kharkiv region and the right bank of Kherson region.

Two counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces

There was shelling in the Kharkiv region and attempts to capture the regional center. This is not what we should be talking about here, but the Balakliia-Kupiansk operation, which allowed Ukraine to liberate a large area in a week. It was the first successful operation that showed that the army can not only defend itself but also conduct effective offensives.

In the Mykolaiv region, Ukrainian units made it impossible for the enemy to advance. Several explosions were carried out, as well as several strikes on Russian troops, which forced the enemy to stop and not to implement their plans. Such actions were carried out in all directions, despite the fact that it was hard and risky, given all the difficulties of the first stage of the war.

Both the Kharkiv and Kherson operations were planned for a long time. The liberation of the right bank of the Kherson region took a long time because the enemy had entrenched itself there and Ukrainian Armed Forces had to carry out a significant number of preparatory measures – destroying manpower and limiting the enemy's logistics. Ukraine did this with the long-range systems we received in the summer. At the same time, we started planning this operation. The combination of new technological capabilities and an understanding of the enemy's vulnerabilities made it possible.

Bakhmut is new Mariupol

Mariupol was held for 86 days. Throughout this period, the Azov contingent held back about 10 Russian battalion tactical groups, which were restrained. At that time, the defense line was being built, and an understanding of how to make defensive lines was being formed. This gave us the opportunity to provide more planned defense measures in other areas. Mariupol prevented the Russians from realizing their plans to advance to other areas.

The situation near Bakhmut resembles the situation near Mariupol, where Ukrainian troops are holding back significant enemy forces and ensuring enemy losses in manpower and equipment. Now the Russians are trying to reach the city from the south, north and east. The most difficult situation is in the north, where the enemy captured Berkhivka and Yahidne. Through them, the enemy wants to bypass Bakhmut from the north and advance to Khromove. This settlement is on the road from Chasiv Yar, and is one of the key elements of Bakhmut's supply. It is about four kilometers from Verkhivka and Yahidne to Khromove. Our artillery is working very actively there to prevent the enemy from entering this area. If the Russians manage to push through to Khromove and cut the logistics line to Bakhmut, this will create the need for either a powerful counter-offensive to drive the enemy from these dominant heights or to take measures to transfer our grouping to another line of defense.

Outlook for the next year

We are committed to acting as quickly as possible, but this requires a clear alliance and cooperation with our partners.  President Zelenskyy said that we want to win this year, but the reality is different. We have to be prepared for any scenario, realizing that victory will be ours, but it requires strength, capabilities and courage from each of us, even if it takes more than one year.