Espreso. Global

January 3-10 war map: Russia's three-month offensive on eastern front is failure

10 January, 2024 Wednesday

The Ukrainian forces thwarted Russian troops from fulfilling any of their tasks to break through to Kupyansk, Lyman or Kurakhove, to surround Avdiivka or Vuhledar


Attempt to surround Avdiivka: 3 months of stumbling around

This week, the Russian army managed to advance a hundred meters on the road from Pisky to Pervomaiske, and about the same distance on Avdiivka's northern outskirts. Instead, all attempts to penetrate Ukraine's defense redoubts in Stepove, Berdychi, Novobakhmutivka and Novokalynove failed. A similar stalemate is on the southern front of the city. Currently, the Russians are attacking mostly with infantry, without using armored vehicles. This means that in the near future they will regroup and probably change their tactics to find the key to Avdiivka. Instead, they are now planning to make greater efforts in the Kupyansk and Vuhledar directions. While the threat in the Kharkiv region is low, the situation near Vuhledar could be extremely aggravated.

Vuhledar awaits a new Russian invasion

The invading Russian forces have reinforced their southern grouping, which is concentrated south and east of Vuhledar, with armored vehicles and personnel. They are preparing for another offensive to push Ukraine's troops as far away from the railroad that connects Donetsk with Vuhledar and Melitopol as possible. Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are less than 10 kilometers from the railroad, which prevents the Russian army from using it.

While Russia was preparing, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully counterattacked near Novomykhailivka, where the Russian troops had made significant gains in the previous weeks. Ukraine's soldiers have actually managed to retake almost all the territory they had previously lost. On the frontline near Marinka, the Russian army is trying to advance along the road towards Kurakhove, but is currently stuck near Heorhiivka, where daily fighting is taking place.

Bakhmut inferno flares up with renewed vigor

Bohdanivka, Khromove, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka have been the hottest spots on the frontline this week. The Russia troops are trying their best to break through Ukraine's defenses and get behind the lines of the military who control the dominant heights north of Klishchiivka. On the other hand, they want to get as close to Chasiv Yar as possible and start its siege as soon as possible. In recent days, they have managed to push Ukrainian defenses a few hundred meters south of Khromove and between Klishchiivka and Ivanivske. The task in this area is the same as in the Avdiivka sector: to achieve at least some results by March. The most they can aim for now is to regain control of the dominant heights near Klishchiivka and to revise the results of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive in that sector.     

Although the Russian offensive in the east has failed in general, this does not mean that they will not keep trying to achieve success in any of the above areas until Putin's March elections.

Liberation of Crimea and bridgehead in Kherson region

On January 4, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a comprehensive attack on military facilities in Crimea. At least 13 high-ranking Russian invaders were killed in the command post in Yukharina Balka in Sevastopol. At the same time, other missiles successfully destroyed a large ammunition depot near the village of Hryshyne. Finally, a double strike on the airfield in Novofedorivka destroyed several radar stations and another newly built radio station in Uiutne. Thus, the Russian enemy was temporarily blinded in this part of the peninsula.

In the Kherson region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to defend their bridgehead near Krynky, while Russia is gathering more forces for an assault. Weather conditions are complicating logistics for Ukraine, making it harder to hold the bridgehead.

At the same time, after the recent destruction of Su-24, Su-30 and Su-34, the number of UAVs used in this sector has significantly decreased: last week there were only 2 air strikes. Ukraine is gradually regaining control of the airspace over the left-bank Kherson region.

Map of missile terrorism in Ukraine

During the latest, the third massive attack in recent times, Russia launched 24 Kh-101/555/59 cruise missiles and another 27 ballistic missiles. Ukraine's air defense system shot down 18 cruise missiles aimed at targets in the central and western regions, except for those that hit targets in Khmelnytskyi. Instead, ballistic missiles aimed at Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv fell on Ukrainian cities that are not currently protected by the Patriot system. As a result of this strike, it can be concluded that Russian terrorists have changed their missile strike strategy. The main reason is the lack of missiles. For example, they have about 40 Kh-101/555/59 missiles left, and for some reason they are not launching any more Kalibr missiles. Therefore, the next attacks are likely to be combined with 30-40 missiles, most of which will be ballistic missiles and will be fired mainly at frontline cities. Instead, the pauses between attacks will become longer each time so that Russia can replenish its supplies.   


The maps were created based on information received from the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff and other open and verified sources. At the same time, the maps are not as accurate as possible and only conditionally reflect trends in the combat zone.

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