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April 24 - May 1 live war map: Ocheretyne loss poses threat to Toretsk and Kostiantynivka

1 May, 2024 Wednesday
14:00

Russia seeks to capture as much of Donetsk region as possible, while Ukraine lacks ammunition and the promised assistance is still on the way. The Ukrainian Armed Forces now face much greater pressure from Russian manpower, artillery, and aviation, and therefore have to retreat in some areas. On the other hand, despite this superiority, the Russian Armed Forces cannot develop a rapid offensive.

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Post-Avdiivka frontline reaches new horizons

Over the course of the week, the Russians managed to push through Ukrainian defences in almost all areas of this front. From the southern edge, they captured half of the small village of Netailove and threatened to advance to Karlivka and access the road leading to Yasnobrodivka and Umanske, where Ukrainian defensive positions are located. The front line has not changed in the area of these villages, and the occupiers' attacks were minor. However, the situation here may deteriorate sharply, given the events that took place in other areas in the Orlivka-Berdychi area. Along the entire length of the frontline from Orlivka to Berdychi, the Russian troops crossed the Durna River and seized the villages of Semenivka and Berdychi. The Ukrainian Armed Forces restored the defensive line near Novopokrovske. Given that the 3rd Assault Brigade retreated from Semenivka, it became clear how difficult the operational situation was.

Nevertheless, events around Ocheretyne developed most dynamically. The Russians took the dominant heights where the village is located, which until recently was the main defense center in this area of the front, and continued their offensive in the northwestern direction, toward Novooleksandrivka. Some Russian troops are moving along the railway line towards the village of Prohres. This tactic is explained by the fact that this area is difficult to mine. On the other hand, the Russian forces are quite vulnerable to artillery, advancing almost through open territory. At the same time, the occupiers are expanding their flanks to protect themselves from a counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Thus, they captured Novobakhmutivka and Soloviove and launched an attack on the village of Sokil. On the left flank, they managed to drive a wedge between the two brigades and occupy the villages of Novokalynove and Keramik, while Ukrainian troops retreated to Arkhanhelske.

After the Russian military occupied Ocheretyne, reached the dominant heights and managed to expand the flanks, they had the opportunity to choose their main offensive direction. They could either move west towards Pokrovsk or north towards Kostiantynivka. Despite the fact that the two towns are equidistant by 30 kilometres, an attack on Pokrovsk is less likely due to the logistical problems that would certainly arise if the front line were to extend in only one section. An offensive on Kostiantynivka looks more promising, as it is simultaneously under pressure from other troops from Chasiv Yar. In addition, it will allow them to bypass Toretsk and New York defences, where the front line has not changed since 2014.

As a result, Russian forces intensified their offensive on Klishchiivka and Andriivka, liberated by Ukraine in the summer, which were obstacles to their aggressive plans. Despite the difficult situation near Chasiv Yar, the front line has not changed. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to hold part of Ivanivske, without the occupation of which a full-fledged attack on the town is impossible.  

To summarize, it is worth noting that 2.5 months have passed since the occupation of Avdiivka, and despite all efforts, the Russians have not managed to break through the front. Their advance was 12-13 kilometers to the west and north, and they only made 22 kilometers diagonally towards Ocheretyne. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces demonstrated the flexibility of their defense and the availability of resources that can be thrown into battle, having the necessary ammunition.  

The battle for Krasnohorivka

A week after the Russians almost broke through to the town's central districts, the situation changed dramatically. Ukrainian defense forces managed to push back the Russian troops not only from the central areas, but also from the eastern ones. Currently, the enemy has gained a foothold only in a small part of the southern districts of the city. Fierce fighting is going on in all other areas. 

Offensive on Kupyansk

This week, the Russian troops broke through Ukrainian positions near Kyslivka and almost captured the village, 22 km from Kupyansk. This is an attempt to continue the offensive on Kupyansk via the road that runs from Svatove. Back in January, the Russians managed to capture the villages of Krokhmalne and Tabaivka, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to recapture the latter. The invaders then occupied 8 km of the strategically important road, but were unable to build on their success, in part due to defenses in Kyslivka and neighboring Kotliarivka. Now, after the occupation of Kyslivka, Ukrainian soldiers in Kotliarivka are under threat of encirclement and will be forced to retreat to other positions. In addition, the Russians intensified their assaults near the villages of Berestove and Novoselivske, but the Ukrainian Defence Forces pushed them back. 

Southern prospects for counteroffensive

As heavy fighting continues in the Donetsk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are sending their ATACMS and drones south. After the destruction of air defences near Dzhankoi, new missiles flew to the Tarkhankut area, where they took out all four S-300 and S-400 air defence systems. In addition, numerous explosions have recently been heard in Simferopol, Hvardiiske and again in Dzhankoi. The results of the explosions will be known later.

A massive drone strike in the Krasnodar region of the Russian Federation again shut down the refineries in Slavyansk and Ilsky. In addition, a strike on the Kushchyovskaya airfield, from where Su-34 and Su-35 fighters carrying guided bombs make about fifty flights a day to Ukraine, was accurate. The strike definitely destroyed some of the bomb depots and probably damaged some of the aircraft. This strike demonstrates the vulnerability of strategically important airfields for Russia, which will force the Russians to disperse their aircraft and relocate air defense systems.  

 

The maps were created based on information received from the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff and other open and verified sources. At the same time, the maps are not as accurate as possible and only conditionally reflect trends in the combat zone.

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