UK intelligence predicts economic growth in Ukraine at 3%

This is reported by the UK Defense Ministry.

“Despite attacks by Russia on Ukraine's energy infrastructure,it is likely that Ukraine will see real economic growth of around 3 percent in 2024,” the statement says.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine's economic growth was 5% in 2023. The NBU has improved its annual inflation forecast for 2024 to 8.2% from 8.6%.

It is noted that in March 2024, inflation in Ukraine fell to 3.2% year-on-year, intensifying the downward trend with a peak of over 26% in 2022. However, inflation is likely to rise in the second half of 2024.

The NBU predicts that the effects of last year's bumper harvest will diminish, consumption will recover, and business costs will rise during the war.

“Continued improvements in the economic conditions of Ukraine have almost certainly allowed the NBU to progressively lower its base interest rate. The NBU lowered the base interest rate to 13.5 percent at the end of April 2024, down from 14.5 per cent set in March 2024, and below the wartime peak of 25 per cent.”

• All members of the NBU's Monetary Policy Committee see room for further key policy rate cuts, but opinions on the pace of interest rate easing are divided.