'Not verdict, but warning': expert says Ukraine's population may fall to 25 million by 2050

Oleksandr Hladun, Deputy Director for Scientific Work of the M.V. Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and a Doctor of Economic Sciences, stated this on Espreso TV.

"When we talk about a forecast, we must understand that it is a scientific prediction, because a scientific demographic forecast can be divided into certain categories. There is a short-term forecast for up to 3–5 years, which is quite accurate, a medium-term forecast for up to 15 years, and anything longer is a long-term forecast. And the attitude towards these forecasts should be different," noted Hladun.

According to the demographer, a long-term forecast should be viewed not as a verdict, but as a prediction—a forecast-warning that shows what could happen if measures are not taken in the sphere of demographic, economic, and social policy. In addition, when developing forecasts, hypotheses are formed, and usually, several forecast scenarios are created: pessimistic, medium, and optimistic.

"In our conditions, another factor is added: the year the war ends, which no one can determine. The fact is that demographic processes during the war, and for 3–5 years after the war, differ in their dynamics and content. Therefore, this forecast is a medium scenario that we made for the entire territory of the country, but we do not know within which borders the war will end, whether hostilities will cease, and how the population will react to this. If the war ends and there is security, it will be necessary to conduct a very active demographic, social, and economic policy so that our forecast does not come true and the situation improves," Hladun summarized.

• According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine will need an additional 4.5 million workers over the next ten years. Approximately the same number of people are currently abroad with refugee status.