Who goes where and when is always important, at least when it comes to geopolitics. Neither Putin nor Xi is going to the G20 summit in India. Putin probably would like to, but he is afraid, perhaps even physically, because he did not go to the BRICS summit, and he did not go to Turkey either.
Xi is likely to "skip" the summit, as it is best for him to pause now. From his purely Chinese perspective, he is doing the right thing - waiting for Putin to attend the Silk Road summit in October and raising the stakes before the presidential election in Taiwan in January. No one has complete influence over Putin, but only Xi has the greatest relative influence. And a series of coups in Africa is also in China's favor - it will soon have a "golden share" in Africa in terms of security, economy, and, accordingly, control over migration flows.
China is becoming the number one interlocutor for the West and is showing it - visit after visit of Americans to Beijing and nothing in return - this is purely in the Chinese spirit.
"The geopolitical "chessboard," as Brzezinski used to say, has changed. There are many figures on the board and the goal of both the West and non-West is to win their game and then the tournament."
We want to become a part of the West, and this means understanding its rules of the game and motivation, as well as the motivation of those who play on the other side. We are an important figure there, and no one will sacrifice us, neither will the Chinese, they do not need the imperial Russian Federation, and they do not need a strengthened Russian regime either.
But our tactics and the strategy of others may be fundamentally different, and we may feel it in the coming months.
About the author. Pavlo Klimkin, diplomat, former Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs.
The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.