Ukraine defends Bakhmut, despite US warnings

According to the Washington Post, the fight for control of Bakhmut in Ukraine has turned into the war's longest and most deadly battle, with Ukrainian forces still holding on to the city's western edge despite warnings from the US that they may not be able to withstand an attack by Russian mercenaries. 

Recently leaked classified intelligence documents allegedly provided by Jack Teixeira, a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, revealed that as early as January, US officials had expressed pessimism about Ukraine's ability to hold Bakhmut against Russian advances. The documents suggested that Ukrainian forces were in danger of being encircled and advised Kyiv to consider withdrawing from the city.

Despite the warnings, Kyiv has prioritized holding Bakhmut as a matter of utmost importance, not solely for its strategic military value, but also to uphold national morale and prevent Russia from claiming territorial gains. Ukraine has asserted that the ongoing conflict in Bakhmut has weakened Russia by inflicting casualties, particularly among the Wagner mercenary group. 

However, Col. Pavlo Palisa, the Ukrainian commander responsible for the Bakhmut campaign, stated that he was never officially informed of the US intelligence or the suggested strategies for utilizing the Bakhmut conflict to their advantage.

Among the leaked sensitive materials shared through the messaging platform Discord, was a document outlining tactics Ukraine could employ such as advanced weaponry, information campaigns, and counter-drone technology to inflict "future costs" on Russian military forces.

Palisa attributed his success in holding onto parts of the city for a longer period than anticipated to a mix of traditional urban warfare and cutting-edge drone reconnaissance methods that included signal jamming layers.

Following the breach of Bakhmut's perimeter by Russian forces, Palisa stated that he withdrew his troops into residential areas, utilizing rooftops as advantageous positions and converting houses into antitank positions. As the conflict escalated within the city, both factions increasingly relied on reconnaissance drones for precision targeting and jammers to disrupt the enemy's navigation systems.

Palisa also mentioned that Ukraine has learned from some Russian tactics, such as using equipment to mask a drone's "home point," preventing the enemy from identifying the unit operating the device. Despite the initial pessimism from the officers around him, Palisa expressed confidence in their mission and their ongoing efforts to hold the city.

According to the leaked document, a "psychological operation campaign" was proposed to undermine Russian morale and encourage desertions by emphasizing the "disposable" nature of Moscow's troops. Additionally, the document suggested that Ukraine should use "dual purpose improved conventional munitions," which combines artillery and surface-to-air missiles, to target large groups of Russian forces and counter assault waves.

According to a Ukrainian first lieutenant, who goes by the call sign Tatarin, there is a constant ebb and flow occurring on the front lines. Russian attacks enable their troops to advance a few hundred meters before being repelled hours later. Tatarin added that it's difficult to determine precisely where the front line is located since it's in a constant state of flux, "moving like Jell-O."

The situation on the main supply road in and out of Bakhmut changes throughout the day, with positions shifting back and forth. Tatarin explained, "In the morning we can control it, and then we can lose it and take it back. But most of the time Ukrainian forces still control the road."

Russian operations in eastern Ukraine are primarily focused on capturing Bakhmut. Moscow has declared that gaining control of the town will pave the way for taking over the entire Donetsk region in Ukraine, where Russian forces currently occupy just over 50% of the territory.

The Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement on Thursday claiming that its forces, led by airborne units, successfully prevented “the enemy’s attempts to counterattack” and the deployment of reinforcements to the north and south of Bakhmut.

Yan Melnikav, a Ukrainian soldier, led a battalion outside Bakhmut and had been defending the city's outskirts since November. As Russian troops advanced, his battalion fell back to the northwest. Melnikav claimed that Ukraine was able to prolong the fight due to its commanders on the ground having greater autonomy compared to the Russians. He frequently heard Russian commanders requesting permission from higher-ups to make minor operational changes, which hampered their progress. Melnikav stated that his battalion could coordinate directly with various units and could request assistance from other units in difficult situations.

Upon entering Bakhmut, the conflict immediately turned into a slow and grueling battle, often fought over the control of a few residential blocks for several weeks. Ukrainian forces strategically held their ground to prevent the enemy from moving to other parts of the front line, as explained by Tatarin. Nevertheless, the prolonged street-to-street fighting in Bakhmut has inflicted a considerable toll on both sides. The intensity of the fight has forced many Ukrainian units to rotate out of the city after just two weeks, according to the first lieutenant.

Soldiers under Melnikav's command at the mortar unit on the edge of Bakhmut have reported that due to the high number of munitions used in the conflict, they have had to limit their shell usage to six rounds per day, and resupply has become increasingly unreliable. 

Ammunition shortages have resulted in Palisa's troops inside Bakhmut being forced to withdraw from their positions, with Palisa acknowledging that the insufficient ammunition is costing the lives of his soldiers. When asked about the success of the mission and whether it was worth the losses incurred, Palisa avoided answering directly and stated that holding the city allows for the training and preparation of newly created units for future operations. Only after the completion of the mission can a proper assessment of its success be given.

Since September, Russia has been claiming that it was on the brink of seizing Bakhmut. However, its progress has been minimal and has resulted in the loss of numerous lives. On the other hand, Ukraine has been resolute in defending Bakhmut, but this has also come at a great cost. The city is now mostly in ruins, with houses, apartments, and public areas destroyed by artillery fire, leaving streets, parks, and gardens covered in shrapnel. “I would like to see the city without all the destruction,” Palisa said. “But if it helps to save other Ukrainian cities, we need to do what we have to do.”