The prospect of the collapse of the Russian Federation is already really tangible. And this is not only a desirable, but now quite a real prospect. Even yesterday's skeptics do not reject such a possibility.
At the same time, one should not have inflated expectations that in one beautiful moment all the indigenous peoples of the empire will rise up or want to leave Moscow.
The dismantling of the structure called the "Russian Federation" will begin only in those regions where, among at least a few tens of percent of the population, there is, firstly, an idea of national identity (their own linguistic, cultural, and other separateness), and secondly, readiness for mass protest/disobedience, and better armed resistance in order to defend their separateness.
If you want to understand from which locations the process of disintegration of the Russian Federation will begin, see where these two mandatory circumstances are. Talking about other regions is the fantasy of connoisseurs of ancient history.
Eventually, of course, all components of the so-called federation will be faced with the need for self-determination. But for most it will be forced, passively and only after Moscow completely loses its ability to control the situation on the territory of the Russian Federation. The reasons for the loss of control can be different. But this is a completely different topic of conversation.
About the author: Mykhailo Basarab, political scientist.
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