Trump will likely change his stance on Putin, Ukraine war strategy within one to two months – political scientist

He shared this opinion on Espreso TV.

"He (Trump – ed.) really wants to believe him (Putin – ed.), but his expectations don’t always match reality. That’s why it’s crucial that, during any potential pause in strikes on energy infrastructure, the U.S. has its own monitoring mechanisms in place — so that Trump himself sees, through his own experts, that Putin cannot be trusted. For now, Trump wants to believe it because he has grand ambitions on the world stage. One of those ambitions is to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. But for Trump, this isn’t just about the war, it’s part of a bigger plan. He thinks that by improving ties with Russia, he can weaken the strategic alliance between Russia and China. He believes this goal is worth pursuing. Of course, achieving it isn’t as easy as he imagined. I even doubt he’ll succeed. But he believes in it, and he’s trying," Taran said.

Serhiy Taran noted that not much time has passed since Trump’s presidency, so many Americans still think he is trying to broker peace in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

"But once the U.S. grows frustrated with Trump’s erratic foreign policy moves, something will have to change. I really want Trump to take action that ensures Ukraine’s security. But it seems to me that Trump has a very simplistic understanding of the Russian-Ukrainian war. He might genuinely believe that all it takes is a ceasefire. Or that he just needs to offer Putin investments in rare earth metals. Or simply flatter Putin, as he often does. But the reality is far more complex than Trump thinks. For now, he’s under the illusion that this can be resolved quickly and easily. But that belief won’t last forever. If negotiations with Putin drag on, and Putin will drag them on, Trump will start losing faith," he said.

The political scientist stressed that Putin’s main goal is to stall negotiations. He wants to trap Trump in endless talks, not give him the quick diplomatic victory he expects.

"If these negotiations drag on, Trump will gradually become disillusioned. Then, he might start considering other strategic options — or even lose interest in foreign policy altogether. Though that would be difficult, since he’s made big promises, not just about ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, but on other foreign policy fronts as well. I won’t bring up Canada or Panama, but every U.S. administration needs to pair domestic actions with foreign policy moves. And so, in a month or two, when he realizes Putin is playing him, something will have to change. I hope he starts strengthening Ukraine, as he once promised. Even before becoming president, while still in opposition, he said: 'How will I stop the war? I will offer Ukraine more weapons if Russia doesn’t accept the peace plan.' On the other hand, he also threatened to stop sending weapons if Ukraine didn’t agree to peace. He’s already tested this second approach — pausing military aid to Ukraine. I hope that in a month or two, he shifts to the first approach. If Russia refuses to negotiate and rejects his peace plan, Trump should follow through on his promise to strengthen Ukraine," Taran added.

Trump’s conversation with Putin

On March 18, U.S. President Donald Trump had a two-hour phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. They agreed that the path to peace should begin with halting attacks on energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Moscow demanded that Ukraine suspend mobilization and pause the rearmament of its Armed Forces during a potential ceasefire.

Following the talks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Putin had effectively rejected the proposal for a full ceasefire.