Trump seeks a deal with Russia, but falling for the same trap twice comes at a cost

In 2024, bilateral trade between China and Russia hit a record high of $244 billion (1.8 trillion yuan). Although this marks only a 3% increase from 2023, it follows a nearly 33% surge in 2022, driven by Russia's failure to capture Ukraine in three days and the subsequent replacement of Western goods.

If the economy shapes political conditions, it’s easy to predict that China will intervene when its profitable use of Russia — as both a market for its goods and a source of resources — is threatened.

I’ve previously suggested that the best outcome for everyone would be an agreement between Beijing and Washington to divide Russia into spheres of influence, encouraging centrifugal forces within the country. This could eventually lead to Russia's complete demilitarization. However, for this to happen, Ukraine must at least win the current battle. And I fully understand that this scenario isn’t even being considered as a backup plan at the moment.

Trump wants to attempt negotiations with Russia. He doesn’t want to acknowledge that falling into the same trap could be too painful. Let him try.

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About the author. Viktor Shlinchak, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.