Trump pushes back deadline for ultimatum

But let’s try to understand what’s behind the slogans being thrown around from all sides.

1. I have believed — and still believe — that the current situation (the U.S. proposals) is rooted in an agreement proposed by Dmitriev during the first meeting in Riyadh. I’ve written about this a lot, but to reiterate: Putin offered the U.S. a deal to sell Russia’s sanctioned goods to “unfriendly countries” (primarily the EU). That already means tens of millions of dollars a year. Investments in energy or the Arctic are just a smokescreen. In return, the U.S. seeks the lifting of EU sanctions.

2. I’m confident the EU would be ready for such a deal, but only in exchange for resolving tariff issues and security concerns (the question of Ukraine and NATO umbrella). And undoubtedly — the Greenland issue. Ukraine is now a shield the EU is using to resolve its own existential problems.

3. Putin sees his position as win-win. Lifting sanctions is a victory. Continuing the war without U.S. aid also seems like a positive to him. But his top priority now is sanctions. Due to falling oil prices and real technological degradation, Putin needs sanctions lifted. Moreover, he sees this as a direct communication channel with the U.S., giving him more room in dealings with China.

4. Ukraine's foreign policy strategy, as far as I understand it, is about pushing for Russia’s collapse starting now.

5. From what can be gathered from Trump’s statements — he’s decided to postpone issuing an ultimatum for a few more weeks. And right now, Ukraine simply cannot afford to fall out with the United States, no matter how difficult that may be.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.