The Caucasus begins to unravel the Russian matryoshka

The key reason behind this shift is Ukraine, which continues to wear down Russian forces in the war. Russia is losing tens of thousands of soldiers each month and has already lost a significant part of its military strength.

Unfortunately, Ukraine isn't yet playing an active role in shaping events in the region. But the war has already gone beyond Ukraine’s borders. It’s time to strike at the enemy using complex geopolitical strategies.

Azerbaijan, Armenia, and possibly even Georgia are now ready to “open the Moscow nesting doll” in the Caucasus.

How will Russia respond?

It has no choice but to react. Most likely, Moscow will try to show off what’s left of its military power and stir up instability wherever possible, even with limited resources. The propaganda playbook tested in Ukraine will be recycled: talk of “Nazis,” “disarmament,” “ancestral lands,” and “disrespect.” The goal is to create chaos and project an illusion of control near the Iranian border — mainly to gain leverage in negotiations with the U.S.

Can this strategy work? That depends mostly on Turkey and China.

One thing is clear: Russia is increasingly looking like a “colossus with feet of clay.” 

Let’s hope that the biblical stone finally comes crashing down—and shatters this unstable giant once and for all.

Source

About the author. Valeriy Chalyi, Ukrainian diplomat, former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the United States

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.