Summit in Vilnius: Will Ukraine receive invitation to join NATO? 

NATO summit will be held in Vilnius on July 11-12. The top topic is a possible invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance. Insight News analyzed the issue

Talks between Kuleba and Stoltenberg

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba had a telephone conversation with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on June 29. Kuleba called for a clear understanding of Ukraine's path to joining NATO. 

“During our call today, I commended Jens Stoltenberg for his efforts to make the NATO summit in Vilnius a success. Ukraine continues to work actively with all NATO Allies to convince them that the time for clarity on Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance has come,” Kuleba tweeted. 

The Ukrainian Minister also urged Germany to avoid repeating the mistakes made by former Chancellor Angela Merkel in Bucharest in 2008. Back then, she strongly opposed any progress in Ukraine's NATO membership.

In an interview with the German newspaper Bild, Kuleba said that the NATO decision at the time "opened the door for Putin's invasion of Georgia and, ultimately, for the illegal annexation of Crimea." If Ukraine had already been a NATO member in 2014, the annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbas, and the invasion of the entire country would not have happened.

Ukraine's accession to NATO supported by 21 member states

Ukraine and Spain signed a joint declaration on Saturday, July 1, which became the 21st document in support of Ukraine's membership in NATO. Madrid wants to see Kyiv in the Alliance and promises to provide military and humanitarian assistance.

Russia's war has changed attitudes toward Ukraine's accession to NATO

Meanwhile, key European states have changed their attitudes toward Ukraine's accession to NATO as a result of Russia's full-scale war.

Even skeptical NATO countries have lost the most powerful counterargument against Ukraine's membership: possible escalation by Russia if Kyiv is invited to join the Alliance. 

French politicians and experts admit that while a few years ago they did not support the idea of Ukraine's membership in NATO, today they find nothing wrong with it.

German defense experts believe that Germany would not be opposed to inviting Ukraine to join NATO if the White House gives the green light.

NATO chief says Ukraine's accession to the Alliance will be considered after the war

In a conversation with Jens Stoltenberg, Estonia's Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, said that Ukraine will have a surprise regarding its membership in the Alliance. But she does not want to disclose it now.

At the same time, the NATO Secretary General said that Ukraine's accession to NATO would not happen while the war is ongoing, but that there is a path to membership in the future.

Ending war with Russia is a condition for Ukraine's accession to NATO

The prospect of Ukraine's accession to NATO has a condition - the end of the war with Russia. This was stated by Olaf Scholz, the Federal Chancellor of Germany. Some of Berlin's allies in the Alliance share the same opinion.

Scholz also said that Germany is one of the key countries that should develop all security guarantees for Ukraine. Official Berlin and some NATO member states see "security guarantees" as an alternative way to ensure Ukraine's security to membership in the Alliance.

States are talking about providing Ukraine with security guarantees without the promise of NATO membership. Considering the bitter experience of the Budapest Memorandum and the current Russian military aggression, any vague security guarantees will not satisfy Ukraine.

How can NATO benefit from Ukraine's accession?

Experts say Ukraine deserves membership in the Alliance by courageously defending its independence and territorial integrity, fighting against a full-scale invasion by Moscow.

They also emphasize that the experience gained by the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be very useful for NATO.

Kyiv stands as a shield between the democratic West and the authoritarian East. Since February 2022, the Ukrainian army has been repelling a full-scale offensive by the so-called world's second-largest army and defending NATO against its greatest direct threat. 

In addition, NATO membership will be fundamental to Ukraine's successful and secure post-war reconstruction and future security guarantees for the country.

Financial Times claims NATO summit to announce security guarantees for Ukraine 

Journalists of the Financial Times claim to know what security guarantees for Ukraine will be announced by NATO at the summit. The newspaper writes that NATO will propose bilateral agreements between Ukraine and four countries on arms supplies and military training, which Ukraine already has.

The mistake of the Bucharest summit is that NATO committed itself to accepting Ukraine, but no practical steps were taken in this direction for 15 years, which ultimately made Ukraine extremely vulnerable to a full-scale Russian invasion.

NATO's next summit in Vilnius has a historic mission to correct the mistakes of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the 2008 Bucharest Summit. It is an opportunity to develop and provide adequate security guarantees for Ukraine, which has given up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal and suffered a brutal and unjustified invasion by Russia. NATO membership will make any future threats of invasion of Ukraine impossible.