Soon we can see the liberation of Kherson. Serhiy Zgurets column

Situation in Kherson region

Russia began to pump up the information space with strange theses. The commander of the so-called special military mission, Surovikin and the Gauleiter of parts of the occupied region reported on the need to evacuate and deport the Ukrainian population from the right bank of the Kherson region. This "General of Armageddon" Surovikin began to talk about making difficult decisions. Some experts claim that this may be a marker of a gesture of "goodwill", because further maintenance of this Kherson bridgehead is almost impossible for the Russians, given the problems with logistics and the inexpediency of a military stay on the right bank of the Dnipro. There is logic in such conclusions because earlier Russia transferred a significant amount of military equipment and personnel to the right bank. In total, there are currently 22 BTGs. But, if we count the losses, then in general we are talking about 10 thousand personnel, although other experts call for higher figures.

The basis of the group is the airborne assault units, which seem to have good training, but they were significantly weakened by the fighting on the right bank, which affected their morale.  It is about preparation for the retreat, especially against the background of the actions carried out by the armed forces of Ukraine.

There was information a couple of days ago that the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a large-scale offensive on the front line, we are talking about the western part of this group from Davydiv Brid to Dudchany in the Kherson region. All this happened in the conditions of an information blackout, although it was mentioned in the foreign media and today it was also said that the Ukrainian armed forces continue to put pressure on Russian group, and this is quite logical because now it is necessary to free as much territory as possible, while there are no floods, which make it difficult to move in these areas. But we are waiting for the General Staff to be assembled, although we understand that these assemblies should be positive. Under these conditions, Russians are at risk of losing at least a significant number of people killed or captured. That is why Russian General Staff said that it is necessary to somehow evacuate from this area, which they are currently occupying.

Such an evacuation will be associated with certain provocations, but in any case, there are mentions of the possibility of destroying the dam in the context of such possible provocative actions. It must be remembered that when the Russians talk about the destruction of the dam, the left bank of Dnipro river will be flooded.

On the elevation map, we can see the green color - these are lower elevations, and on the right bank, elevations that will not be flooded are marked with brown and orange.  In case of detonation of the dam, the entire command of the group, which is on the left bank, air defense equipment, artillery - everything will be flooded with water and unusable for combat operations.  Against the background of talks about blowing up the dam, the opposite scenario can be seen, which consists in the fact that the Russian Federation, under the cover of talks about blowing up the dam, is trying to implement the scenario of further keeping the group on the right bank, and using measures related to the deportation of the Ukrainian population to transfer additional forces.

By the way, Russians had completed the pontoon crossing under the Antonivsky bridge and these 500-700 citizens of Kherson, who were influenced by Surovikin's statements, were put on buses and began to transfer military equipment. In fact, the enemy uses this scheme to cover its military operations.

In any case, this will in no way affect the real scenario regarding the situation on the right bank, because Ukrainian troops are advancing, and long-range artillery is being used quite actively. Already in a short period, we can see the scenario that we have been hoping for for a long time. First of all, this is the liberation of the right bank and the liberation of Kherson. There are simply no other options.