Espreso. Global

Situation escalates in Kupyansk-Lyman direction, Russia suffers significant losses – military expert Zgurets

16 October, 2023 Monday

The situation is hot along the entire frontline, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are conducting both defensive and offensive operations, but two areas have come to the forefront – Avdiivka and the Kupyansk-Lyman direction

Situation around Avdiivka

Since October 10, the invading Russian forces have been conducting an offensive on Avdiivka. Visually, the situation resembles the logic of actions near Bakhmut, when it was a matter of flanking attacks with an attempt to advance from the north and south to reach the rear of Ukrainian troops and cut off supply routes.

The Ukrainian army repelled the first major enemy attacks around Avdiivka in fierce fighting, and these were large-scale actions involving forces at least at the level of a regiment and several brigades. While earlier, Russian attacks had been at the level of a platoon and company. Also, the attacks from the north and south on Avdiivka were preceded by powerful work of Russian aviation and artillery, which indicates a planned and massive approach of the enemy to these offensives. In the course of repulsing the assaults, Ukrainian soldiers inflicted significant losses on Russia, with reports of almost 3,000 soldiers killed.

In addition, dozens of armored vehicles were destroyed. The enemy did not break through the Avdiivka defense line from the front, did not capture the strategic heights on the spoil heap it was aiming for, except for a minor advance in the Stepove area. After suffering significant losses in manpower and equipment, the enemy continues to attack in small groups, leaving its equipment 10-12 kilometers from the combat zone.

Now the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing for a new wave of enemy attacks, and the military says that it seems to have become a little easier. However, this is rather conditional, because according to the General Staff, if we look at the results of the past day, the Russian troops conducted 15 attacks in the Avdiivka sector with the support of aviation, which were repelled, and another 15 attacks took place in Marinka. In fact, half of all the enemy's attacks, 60 of them, took place in this section of the front.

It can be assumed that the pace of the fighting and its outcome will largely depend on the ratio of forces and means and the optimal use of reserves on both sides, but the enemy is driven by political rather than military expediency in the fighting around Avdiivka, and it will ignore rationality in its actions when it comes to losses in its manpower.

Situation in the Kupyansk-Lyman sector

Another section of the front that has once again intensified is from Kupyansk to Kreminna and to Serebryanske forestry. Two days ago, Ukraine’s Land Forces Commander Syrskyi said that the situation in these areas had significantly escalated, the enemy had recovered from its losses and launched active offensives in the area of Makiivka and in the Kupyansk sector.

Map of combat actions in the Lyman-Kupyansk direction as of October 6

Over the past day, there were 15 combat engagements around Kupyansk. The enemy's goal in this area is to reach the administrative borders of Luhansk region, to complicate the movement of Ukrainian troops, which goes through the Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi railway and rocky road, and to try to displace Ukrainian units. Once again, the invading Russian forces are facing a steady defense of Ukrainian troops. Events are taking place in several areas in this direction: the movement towards Sinkivka, Ivanivka, towards Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, fighting near Novoselivske, Nova Makiivka, and in the direction of Lyman.

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