The first documents of the US security services, which were considered classified, began to appear online in early March. However, they became the focus of media attention a month later, when the information began to touch on the topic of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Experts pointed out that not all the data can be considered verified and may contain many manipulations.
While the Pentagon is investigating the data leak, and the FBI has even arrested a suspect, the documents continue to be published by various outlets. They relate not only to Ukraine and Russia, but also to the Middle East, China, and the Indo-Pacific region.
Espreso has collected the most important leaks that are known at the moment and affect Ukraine in one way or another.
The documents contain a lot of information - direct or indirect - about Ukraine's planned counteroffensive.
the number of Ukrainian brigades preparing for the offensive;
weapons: tanks, armored vehicles and artillery provided by Ukraine's Western allies;
one of the maps shows the soil conditions in eastern Ukraine as spring approaches;
how much ammunition is consumed daily for HIMARS;
a warning that a delay in the supply of military equipment will affect training and readiness to perform tasks on time and may lead to "modest territorial gains."
analysis of Ukraine's problems with maintaining vital air defense.
The documents mention the presence of Western special forces in Ukraine, without specifying their activities or location. However, the number of troops mentioned is small - up to a hundred (50 from the UK, 17 from Latvia, 15 from France, 14 from the US, and 1 from the Netherlands).
Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov denied the presence of NATO special forces in Ukraine and said that the published documents “contain a lot of information that is not true.” The White House explained that the military “is not fighting on the battlefield,” but rather “a small US military presence in conjunction with the Office of the Defense Attaché to help us work on accountability of materials coming in and out of Ukraine.”
There are references to the number of deaths on the Russian and Ukrainian sides.
In one document, US intelligence officials claim that the FSB accused Russia's Defense Ministry of “concealing Russian losses in Ukraine.”
Another document states that as of February, the Russians suffered losses of 190,000 to 223,000 soldiers, including up to 43,000 killed in action, while Ukrainian losses amount to 124,000 to 131,000, including up to 17,500 killed and 109,000 to 113,500 wounded.
Reuters notes that in one of these documents, posted on Russian Telegram channels, the figures for losses were grossly altered to reduce Russian and increase Ukrainian losses.
Russia's elite special forces suffered huge losses at the beginning of the invasion and it will take years to replenish them. In addition, the Russian command used the special forces as infantry.
The war in Ukraine is likely to continue beyond 2023. Russia's attrition campaign in Donbas is likely to reach a stalemate and they will not be able to capture the entire region in 2023.
After the data was made public, the State Department said that the incident with the publication of classified documents would not affect its support for Ukraine.
Secretary of the National Security Council Nikolai Patrushev and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov planned to sabotage the war against Ukraine and end it. To do this, they intended to move troops to the south on March 5, at a time when Putin would not be able to influence the situation, as he was about to begin chemotherapy.
The Pentagon document lists the “assessment positions” of 38 European governments in response to Ukraine's request for military assistance. Serbia refused to train the Ukrainian military, but pledged to provide lethal assistance or has already provided it. It is also noted that Serbia has the political will and military capability to provide weapons to Ukraine in the future.
Serbian President Miloš Vučević has already denied this information.
Seoul is reluctant to arm Ukraine for fear of antagonizing Russia. The report, based on radio intelligence, features a conversation between national security advisors who are worried about US pressure to send munitions to Ukraine and their policy of not arming countries at war. As a compromise, they discuss sending weapons to Poland.
According to documents dated February, Egypt planned to produce 40,000 missiles for Russia. Their production and shipment were to be kept secret “to avoid problems with the West.” This was supposed to be Russia's retaliation for unnamed assistance earlier.
In response to the announcement of such plans, the Egyptian authorities stated that Cairo did not take sides in the war, and the White House said “there is no indication that Egypt is providing lethal weapons to Russia.”
China may use Ukrainian strikes on targets deep in Russia “as an opportunity to portray NATO as the aggressor and may increase its aid to Russia if it believes that these strikes were significant.”
“China will react more decisively and is likely to increase the amount and quantity of material it is willing to provide to Russia if Ukrainian strikes are on targets of high strategic value or if they appear to target senior Russian leadership,” the document says.
Hungary could allow its airspace to be used by partners and Ukraine to move weapons. The published data says that Ukrainian pilots will fly on helicopters provided by Croatia “through the airspace of Hungary.”
António Guterres was so interested in preserving the Black Sea grain deal (brokered by the UN and Turkey in July 2022) that he was ready to give in to Russia's demands. This position "undermined broader efforts to hold Russia accountable" for the war.
Based on materials: BBC, The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN, Reuters, DW, Politico, and Fox news.