Russia’s night terror shows weakness, not strength

Is this a display of Mother Russia’s strength? The mysterious Russian soul? Russian alcoholism?

Imagine you’re watching a poker game. Another round begins. One player makes a move — raising the stakes. Another player has nothing left in his account and is forced to go all-in. And that is Putin.

Because Ukraine has money. Because we are at a turning point few have noticed. The EU has finally dared to fully use frozen Russian assets. The EU raises the stakes just when Putin runs out of money. And the Russians are forced to even reduce official war spending in the 2026 budget.

What did the EU do? No, the EU did not dare to confiscate frozen assets. Because it turns out it is not necessary. They can use this money without formally confiscating it. Financial engineering rules.

What is the EU doing? They say: look, in 2022 we froze over 200 billion euros of Russian assets. They were in bonds — debts of Germany, France, and so on. Some of these bonds have already matured (the term ended and payment was made), roughly 170 billion euros, and turned into cash. And this cash just sits there. So, the Europeans say: let’s take this cash and buy EU bonds specially issued for this purpose, which will fund support for Ukraine. Formally, no one is confiscating anything. But the money works. And it can buy a very, very large amount of weapons. And if Russia suddenly agrees to end the war and pay reparations to Ukraine, part of these reparations will go to repay these special bonds and return to Russia. If not, the blame is on them.

As a result, Ukraine has the opportunity to fund the war and increase expenditures to counter Russia. And this does not increase Ukraine’s debt.

And Putin has no money. He could raise VAT, squeeze small businesses, and so on, but it’s not enough. This does not even cover current expenses. And even with continued oil exports, he cannot raise the stakes.

And Putin knows this. He hears the clock ticking. And he escalates. Because he has no other arguments. Because war is always about money.

And the European accountants have presented Putin with a question he cannot answer. And even Trump sees this, gloating at the Russians. And in response, only hysteria.

Can Putin want to fight all of NATO? Maybe. But he cannot. He does not even have enough money to fight the war in Ukraine…

That is why missiles fly at Kyiv. That is why drones fly into Europe, provoking and frightening. But this is an act not of strength, but of impotence.

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About the author. Serhii Fursa, investment expert and blogger.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.