Russian oligarch warns of mass corporate bankruptcies as economy shows cracks

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

Russian metals magnate Oleg Deripaska has issued a stark warning about his country's economic direction, declaring that Moscow is "stupidly squandering everything" mobilized during the early years of the war. The founder of aluminum giant Rusal predicted that thousands of Russian enterprises face bankruptcy due to what he called a "mindless primitive experiment."

However, Deripaska's criticism wasn't aimed at the war itself, but rather at the Central Bank's currency policies. He questioned the logic behind maintaining an artificially strong ruble when most economists believe the exchange rate should exceed 115-120 rubles per dollar, yet it remains around 80.

This currency manipulation appears driven by three critical vulnerabilities in Russia's financial system. First, any significant currency emission risks accelerating already-high inflation in an inflexible economy. Second, banks face a liquidity crisis as the Central Bank forces them to purchase government securities through closed-issue repo operations, leaving financial institutions dependent on deposits that are over 90% ruble-denominated. A rapid ruble devaluation could trigger massive withdrawals, potentially collapsing the banking sector.

Third, and perhaps most significantly, the Kremlin's military mobilization financing depends on maintaining ruble stability. Recent statements from Ukrainian military leadership suggest that Russian combat losses now exceed recruitment rates, meaning any loss of control over currency emission could undermine the entire financial apparatus supporting the war effort through ruble devaluation.

Russia's oil revenue picture is deteriorating sharply. Bloomberg data shows an accumulating backlog of Russian oil tankers unable to offload their cargo, forcing Moscow to increase discounts on Urals crude to $27 per barrel below benchmark prices—up from $22 in previous weeks. This puts Russian oil prices below $35 per barrel and falling.

The impact is already visible in budget figures. Russia's mineral extraction tax revenue is projected at 370 billion rubles for January 2026, down 56% from the 840 billion rubles collected in January 2025.

Regional budgets are showing severe strain, with some areas like Khakassia completely suspending government salary payments due to cash shortages. Local budget deficits could reach 700 billion rubles. Yet paradoxically, several regions that recently cut military contract signing bonuses—including Tatarstan and Chuvashia—are now raising them again, though only for three-month periods.

Analysts interpret these moves as Moscow going "all-in" economically, attempting to avoid showing weakness during negotiations involving the incoming Trump administration, even as the fiscal foundation continues to erode beneath the surface.