This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War.
"Russian forces would not be able to control the consequences of an intentional radiological incident at the ZNPP, which could impact their forces more than Ukrainian forces across the Kakhovka Reservoir given conditions at the time of the incident," the report says.
An intentional radiation incident could also leave many areas in occupied southern Ukraine uninhabitable and ungovernable, further impairing Russia's ability to consolidate its occupation of southern Ukraine, experts say.
"The destruction of the power plant would be a drastic act," the report says.
According to the analysts, Russian forces may signal that they are preparing for sabotage at ZNPP to dissuade Ukrainian forces from conducting counteroffensive operations in the area. After all, the Kremlin regularly uses threats of nuclear escalation and warns of threats (largely Russian imposed) to the security of the ZNPP, trying to put pressure on Ukraine to restrain its military actions and prevent further Western security assistance.
"However, the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam also harmed Russian forces, and possible Russian plans to sabotage the ZNPP cannot be ruled out and should be prepared for by Ukraine and its partners," the Institute emphasizes.
Russian troops occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP in late February 2022. Since then, personnel and military equipment have been permanently stationed there, which the invading forces store in the machine rooms and from time to time bring to positions to shell the territories of the Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk region, located on the other side of the Kakhovka reservoir.
An IAEA monitoring mission is working there to ensure that the plant is not used as a military base, that the plant is not attacked or fired upon, and that external power supplies are not interrupted. However, blackouts at the NPP occur constantly. Since last year, Russian troops have started bringing explosives to ZNPP.
In May 2023, Russian forces had placed explosives in the turbine room of the fourth power unit of the occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP. They also almost completely destroyed the emergency preparedness and response system at the nuclear power plant.
On June 22, IAEA Director General Grossi said after visiting ZNPP that the situation there was extremely unstable.
On the same day, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that intelligence had received information that Russia was considering a scenario of a terrorist attack on the temporarily occupied ZNPP that would cause a radiation release. He also emphasized that the world has enough power to prevent any radiation incidents - it needs to put pressure and act.
Meanwhile, Russian leader’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Zelenskyy's statement a lie.
In turn, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine expects a clear assessment by the IAEA of Russia's criminal actions and has appealed to the international community, in particular the G7 and the EU, to take urgent measures to prevent a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia NPP.