Russian troops prepare for ' Crimea battles': AFU are one step away from fire control of routes to peninsula

Judging by the pictures, trenches tens of kilometers long have been dug even on the beaches of Crimea. Numerous advertisements are currently posted on the Internet looking for workers to reinforce the Crimean trenches with concrete and wood.

However, there is little chance of a Ukrainian landing from the sea.

This raises a quite reasonable question: why are the Russian invaders building trenches and digging trenches even on the coast?

In my opinion, there are two components to this. The first is a traditionally Russian corruption component: laundering budget money. The so-called defense line in the Belgorod region cost the Russian budget a record amount of USD 132 million. Although it has absolutely no practical value.

“Traditionally, the Russian corruption component is money laundering. The so-called 'defense line' in the Belgorod region cost the Russian budget a record amount of USD 132 million. Although it has absolutely no practical value.”

The situation is similar to the so-called defensive fortifications in Crimea. They are of practical importance. Let us recall other corruption programs of the Russian government on the territory of the occupied peninsula. The desalination program, which cost the Russian budget about RUB 48 billion. It was officially recognized as a failure, but the budget money was used.

The second program is the so-called energy bridge, which was very costly even for the Russian budget and showed all its inefficiency. There are a dozen similar programs.

The second point. Regarding the construction itself. The fortifications are being erected in an emergency manner amid reports of a possible counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Moreover, amid of a sharp intensification of the confrontation in the Zaporizhzhia direction. It is no coincidence that in an interview with The Economist, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Zaluzhnyi said that Melitopol is 84 kilometers away, and there are servicemen to attack - give them something to attack with. The United States and our European partners heard the Ukrainian general. Ramstein-9 and Ramstein-10 were exclusively offensive weapons.

“The fortifications are being erected in an emergency manner amid reports of a possible counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Moreover, amid a sharp intensification of the confrontation in the Zaporizhzhia direction.”

By the way, I disagree with the assessment of 'experts' who say that a classic assault on the occupied peninsula is impossible. The point is that the Russian Armed Forces stationed on the occupied peninsula are highly dependent on logistics. And the logistics of the occupation army are the Chongar Isthmus and the Kerch Bridge. That is, two components that are practically under the fire control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

It is important to clarify that parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions are also still occupied. Accordingly, until these territories are liberated, it is impossible to enter Crimea.

But it is not by chance that I mentioned Zaluzhnyi's interview with The Economist. Let's look at the events that are taking place in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Strikes on the rear accumulation bases, places of temporary deployment of personnel and weapons. This is the so-called cascading nature of planning de-occupation operations.

Let me remind you what we are talking about. The successful de-occupation of parts of the Kherson and Kharkiv regions began with strikes on rear bases. The second stage was taking direct control of logistics. And the third stage was the counteroffensive itself. In my opinion, what is happening now in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions and on the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is the first stage of de-occupation. That is, the cascading nature of the planning of operations: strikes on military infrastructure.

“The successful de-occupation of parts of the Kherson and Kharkiv regions began with strikes on rear bases. The second stage was taking direct control of logistics. And the third stage was the counteroffensive itself.”

Accordingly, the Russian authorities fear a similar scenario. Currently, trenches are being dug at a frantic pace in Medvedivka. Also in Armiansk, near the villages of Maslove and Novoivanivka, which is near Dzhankoi. And near the village of Vitino in the Saky district. The village of Vitino is exactly where the fortifications were built on the beach, literally on the sea coast. This means that the Russian authorities consider the liberation of the occupied territories by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as potentially military in nature.

It is noteworthy that the construction of the fortifications began after the meeting between the UK Prime Minister and the French President, where they discussed, among other things, the training of Ukrainian marine units. That is, we are talking about assault units that will be directly involved in the de-occupation of Crimea.

“It is noteworthy that the construction of the fortifications began after the meeting between the UK Prime Minister and the French President, where they discussed, among other things, the training of Ukrainian marine units. That is, we are talking about assault units that will be directly involved in the de-occupation of Crimea.”

Let me remind you that in 2021, even before the large-scale invasion, an intergovernmental agreement was signed between Kyiv and London to allocate a record-breaking GBP 1.8 billion for the construction of the Ukrainian navy. And London has not abandoned this idea. Sunak's recent statements indicate that London is considering the practical realization of its geopolitical goal of building a conditional London-Kyiv-Ankara line, with Kyiv playing a key role. That is, the main efforts will be made precisely at the moment of reconstitution of the Ukrainian Navy and, accordingly, marine units that can directly participate in the de-occupation of Crimea.

It is noteworthy that over the past month, Russian military facilities in the occupied Crimea have been attacked, including with the use of unmanned aerial vehicles. Moreover, according to the Russian side, a projectile fired from a Grom-2 was shot down near Hvardiiske. It should be noted that the range of this operational and tactical complex is about 300 kilometers. This is an analog of the American ATACMS. If this information is confirmed, we can say that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will radically change the nature of the de-occupation of Crimea.

Specially for Espreso

About the author. Dmytro Sniehyriov, columnist for Espreso. 

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.