Russian offensive will be hampered by ammunition shortage and supply problems - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shared the information in its usual report on Russia’s offensive campaign in Ukraine.

ISW analysts note that, according to statements by US and Ukrainian officials on January 10, the daily rate of Russian artillery fire decreased by 75%, which is the lowest since February 24, 2022.

The ISW report suggested that Russian troops may have reduced their shelling due to dwindling supplies or may be reconsidering their tactics, since they exhausted their stocks of 122mm and 152mm caliber and other reserves in the summer of 2022, suggesting that active artillery attacks will lead to faster results.

"Russian forces must now transfer additional shells from rear areas in Russia and purchase additional munitions from foreign countries to counteract such shortages, resulting in a reduced rate of fire," the experts point out.

The ISW adds that "Russian sources are increasingly also acknowledging that Russia’s ammunition and supply shortages are decisively impeding the ability of Russian forces to advance."