Russian forces want to blow up Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam to prevent Ukrainian Armed Forces from getting to Crimea - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update.

American analysts note that Russians have begun to retreat from the western part of Kherson region. Meanwhile, Russian officials remain tight-lipped about whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the withdrawal of troops from Kherson and continue to prepare the information space to justify such a move.

ISW assumes that Russians will try to blow up the dam at Kakhovka HPP to cover their retreat and prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing them deep into the Kherson region.  At the same time, the Russian Federation will almost certainly accuse Ukraine of attacking the dam.

At the same time, experts from the USA are convinced that Ukraine has no interest in blowing the dam, which could flood 80 Ukrainian settlements and displace hundreds of thousands of people while damaging Ukraine’s already-tenuous electricity supply. But it is beneficial for Russian forces to stop the counteroffensive of Ukrainian Armed Forces. Therefore, any statements that they will not blow up the dam due to concerns for the water supply of occupied Crimea are absurd. After all, the peninsula has lived without access to the Dnipro water since Russia illegally invaded and annexed it in 2014.

ISW emphasized that Russian troops will try to hold the east of Kherson region not because of water, but in order to create a buffer zone that enables the defense of Crimea and prevents Ukrainian forces from getting into artillery range of the peninsula.