Russian forces launch renewed offensive push near Avdiivka - ISW

This is stated in the report of the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts noted that the first Russian offensive near Avdiivka on October 10 resulted in significant losses of their equipment.

The fact that Russian forces regrouped and re-launched assaults after the initial attacks suggests that either Russian forces believe they can feasibly take Avdiivka, or that the Russian military command is poorly prioritizing offensive operations regardless of cost.

Geolocated footage published on October 20 shows that Russian forces secured minor advances west of Krasnohorivka, 5km north of Avdiivka. Russian milbloggers and a Ukrainian military observer claimed that Russian forces captured a Ukrainian stronghold near the waste heap just northeast of Avdiivka and advanced to a rail station north of Avdiivka. One prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), south of Avdiivka, near Stepove (8km northwest of Avdiivka), and near Novokalynove (11km northwest of Avdiivka.

Footage published on October 20 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian TOS-1 thermobaric artillery system near Avdiivka. A Russian milblogger complained that Russian counterbattery fire near Avdiivka is decreasing in effectiveness due to poor communication and the failure to stockpile munitions ahead of the offensive effort.

Russian offensive on Avdiivka

On October 16, ISW noted that the Russian offensive near Avdiivka had slowed down, and the Russian forces had suffered numerous losses of soldiers and equipment. The head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration Vitalii Barabash then emphasized that the enemy had failed in its plan to encircle Avdiivka. However, on October 17, ISW noted that in the coming days, the Russian troops may intensify their attempts to surround Avdiivka, and British intelligence believes that the Russian offensive on the city will be the largest since the beginning of the year, as they want to occupy Donetsk region within its administrative boundaries.

In addition, it was reported that after the start of the offensive on Avdiivka, Russia's losses in equipment were five times higher than Ukraine's: during the six days of the offensive, the Russian army lost at least 118 units of equipment compared to 25 for Ukraine. However, due to the constant shelling, humanitarian aid was stopped from being delivered to the city for security reasons.

On October 19, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi visited the hottest Avdiivka and Kupyansk areas of the front. He explained that the enemy is widely using assault units, throwing a large number of armored vehicles, using aviation and artillery.