Are there direct threats to Ukraine's city of Zaporizhzhia?

Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko has analyzed the situation in Zaporizhzhia region in a post for his Telegram channel.

"No, there will be no offensive and occupation of Zaporizhzhia. Activation of Russian forces  — yes, and now Russian occupation army has a stage of reconnaissance by combat, but until the end of this year they have certain tasks," Kovalenko said.

Specifically, the tasks of the invading Russian forces are:

- to cut off the Robotyne ledge and open the Orikhiv direction;
- to expand the zone of control in the area of Huliaipole;
- to regain control of the territories lost in 2023;
- to form conditions for encircling Velyka Novosyolka from three sides, which may also be fraught with the advance of the Russian army into Dnipropetrovsk region, which is less than 7.5 kilometers away from Novodorovka.

"As you can see, the list of Russia's plans does not include occupation of Zaporizhzhia in the short- or even medium-term perspective, which can be explained by their lack of necessary resources," the expert says.

The current situation and the activation of the Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia region is as wrongly reported by news, information and private platforms as the situation on the eve of the Russian offensive in Kharkiv region. At that time, a panic wave was spread on all non-official platforms, saying that the Russian forces were preparing to attack Kharkiv and seize it in the near future. In the end, for the Russian forces everything quite predictably ended up in Volchansk and in the area of the village of Hlyboke, not even Lyptsi. 

A similar situation is developing now in Zaporizhzhia region. The potential of the Russian military grouping  ‘Dnepr’ concentrated, taking into account the accumulation of resources, especially in the area of Tokmak, even less than the Russian military grouping ‘Belgorod’ used during the first wave of the offensive in Kharkiv region.

In addition, a very interesting phenomenon is the transfer of units from  Russian military groupings  ‘Dnepr’  and 'Vostok' to completely different directions.

In September, several units from the 'Dnepr' grouping and from the Polohy direction, where the 'Vostok' grouping operates, were sent to the 'Sever' grouping, namely to the Kursk component of the grouping, in particular the 38th and 64th Detached Motorized Rifle Brigades. At the end of October, the 61st Detached Marine Brigade, whose area of responsibility was Oleshki, was transferred to the Pokrovsk direction and was placed at the disposal of the 2nd Combined Arms Army's military groupng ‘Centre’ due to high losses of the latter and depletion of reserves.

"That is, you are preparing an attack on a major industrial regional center, during the whole time of the full-scale invasion, of which you managed to capture only one, Kherson, and that was not industrial and control over which was lost several months later, and at the same time, you are distributing your brigade-level units in other directions? Let's just say it doesn't look like the Russian forces are preparing to occupy Zaporizhzhia," Kovalenko concluded.

However, the fighting is to activate on frontline, taking into account the above-mentioned tasks, which the command requires from Russian miliatry groupings to fulfil by the end of the year.

Therefore, the only threat to Zaporizhzhia remains the round-the-clock terror of the civilian population.