Will Ukraine sign Trump deal?

In short:

1. The agreement, even if it is not signed, provides for the partial unfreezing (transfer to the recovery fund of Ukraine) of these same assets voluntarily by the Russians. Therefore, I do not believe that Belgium (the main holder of the reserves) will agree to unfreeze them forcibly now.

2. The agreement provides for the unfreezing of 100 out of 300 billion. I would not be surprised if the Russians offer the EU to unfreeze an additional 100 billion for the "recovery" of Ukraine for the EU, and thereby "buy" them.

3. As of March 1, 2026, Ukraine will not have the money for most of its needs. This issue can only be resolved with the help of the Europeans (see point 2).

4. The stories about this money going towards recovery are a myth. For the next year, we need an additional 70 billion to cover the budget deficit. Even without the war, this figure would be 50 billion. In other words, this is money for patching holes.

5. It seems the question now is not about signing or not. The questions are exclusively about whether it will be possible to adjust this ultimatum-like agreement, and when and who will sign it.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

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