Why Ukraine must brace for long war

No, I don't mean to say at all that the war will last forever or for many years. That is impossible: a war of such intensity burns through resources just as a forest fire burns a forest and stops because there is nothing left to burn.

The point is something else.

"If we all set ourselves up for a quick end to the war, it will last a very long time. Conversely, if we prepare for a long war, it will end much sooner."

Such is the paradox. But strategy is always paradoxical. 

The short path turns out to be long because there is an ambush.

The long path turns out to be short because it is safe.

And so on. The Tao tells of many similar examples.

If we all set ourselves up for a quick end to the war, politicians will only think about the next elections, and voters about a quick return to normal life. All of us, politicians and voters, on the front lines and in the rear, entrepreneurs and workers, will make the wrong decisions based on false priorities. The consequence of these wrong decisions will be a significant deterioration of the situation and a prolongation of the war.

If we all prepare for a long war, our only priority will be victory. This will result in the right decisions, which are impossible to make if one is thinking about elections and a quick peace. The consequence of the right decisions will be victories that will accumulate and eventually lead to Victory with a capital letter.

Such are the paradoxes of strategy.

Source

About the author. Valerii Pekar, a lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.