Where sanctions against Russia don’t work, drones do

The main strategy to halt the war, due to the lack of resources for its continuation, is the embargo on Russian oil. This has been consistently advocated by experts since the war's beginning

In 2021, oil and gas revenues made up a significant 34.5% of the Russian federal budget (!)

• Russia earned $110.1 billion from oil exports, constituting 22.3% of its total export income. 
• Additionally, $70 billion was generated from the export of oil products. 

Oil serves as the primary financial source for funding aggression against Ukraine and other countries.

Ukraine proposed imposing an embargo on oil imports from Russia as part of the sanctions.

…And partners agreed to set a maximum oil price of $60.

But this "ceiling" was easily circumvented by Russia through

• blending its oil with other grades;
• utilizing intermediaries for export.

The "shadow fleet" has been extensively utilized during this period.

Bloomberg reporting a surge in the number of vessels in the shadow fleet (operated by sanctioned countries) to 900 units.

In essence, if the world fails to implement an embargo, Ukrainian special services take matters into their own hands.

It is evidenced by recent drone attacks damaging 12% of Russian oil refining facilities.

Here’s a short list of  enterprises "sanctioned" by Ukrainian drones:

• 12/5/2023 – Feodosia oil terminal (capacity: up to 4 million tons per year);
• 1/9/2024 – Oryol oil depot (Rosneft);
• 1/19/2024 – Klintsy oil depot, Bryansk region;
• 1/19/2024 – Yaroslavl "Slavneft-YANOS" plant (capacity: 15 million tons per year);
• 1/21/2024 – Novatek-Ust-Luga fuel complex in the Leningrad region. The complex processes about 7 million tons of gas condensate per year for further production of petroleum products.
• 1/24/2024 – the sea terminal of the Tuapse oil refinery, Rosneft (capacity of 12 million tons of oil per year, or 240,000 barrels per day);
• 2/3/2024 – Volgograd oil refinery "Lukoil" (the plant processes about 14.8 million tons of oil per year and is one of the largest in Russia);
• 2/5/2024 –  "Slavneft-YANOS" refinery (processes about 15 million tons of oil per year);
• 3/3/2024 – marine oil terminal in Feodosia;
• 3/3/2024 – oil pipeline in Feodosia;
• 3/4/2024 – St. Petersburg oil terminal (without critical damage). Capacity: 12.5 million tons per year;
• 3/12/2024 – Oryol oil depot (Rosneft) – a tank with a volume of 2,000 cubic meters of gasoline was damaged;
• 3/12/2024 – Kstovo oil depot "Lukoil";
• 3/12/2024 – "Lukoil" oil refinery (processes about 15.8 million tons of Russian oil per year, or 5.8% of the total volume of oil processed in Russia);
• 3/13/2023 –  Rosneft Ryazan efinery (capacity of 17.1 million tons per year, or about 340,000 barrels per day. It supplies fuel to the region around the Russian capital);
• 3/13/2023 – Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery (capacity of 5.6 million tons per year, or about 112,000 barrels per day).

By the way, the fourth vice-president of Lukoil has already died over the last two years. But this is merely a coincidence...

I could have missed something.

But one thing is clear, the Main Directorate of Intelligence and the Security Service of Ukraine impose sanctions most effectively! 

P.S. Patiently waiting for "shadow fleet" incidents.

Source

About the author. Anatoliy Amelin, co-founder of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future 

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors