What will happen on 51st day after Trump's ultimatum to Putin?

Three and a half years of full-scale war have shown that no economic measures can influence the course of hostilities. The SWIFT cutoff, the oil price cap, nearly 30,000 other sanctions and 17 sanctions packages have not made Putin's army stop.

All cases of halting the Russian offensive are solely the result of the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Therefore, the only effective tool to influence Putin has been and remains to increase support for the Ukrainian military: more weapons, equipment, and ammunition.

So, it is quite obvious that the adoption of Lindsey Graham's bill on 500% tariffs will not affect the course of the war either. But this does not seem to have been its goal. The very existence of such a project and the almost daily increase in the number of its supporters among senators allowed the entire American political system to keep the attention of the war in Ukraine focused on it for several difficult months. No U.S. president can ignore an issue supported by 85% of senators.

Over the past three and a half years, we have seen many important decisions start with complete rejection, but later come to fruition: the supply of HIMARS, tanks, aircraft, restrictions on energy imports - the list goes on. When French President Emmanuel Macron announced last year that European troops could be sent to Ukraine, he was considered almost crazy. But today, this issue is being seriously discussed in other European capitals, with contingents being determined and budgets being calculated. Therefore, the position of Lindsey Graham and other senators on putting pressure on Russian oil buyers to influence Putin and help end the war may well be the beginning of a corresponding campaign by the U.S. administration.

China and India are the largest buyers of Russian oil in the world - together they account for about 85% of Russian oil exports. Given the critical importance of Chinese components to the Russian military-industrial complex, disrupting these supplies from China would have no less impact on the war than disrupting supplies from Europe and the United States to Ukraine. If China is truly faced with a choice: either to supply Russia with electronics, engines, and dual-use machine tools, or to trade with the U.S. and the EU, its decision could actually help end the war.

And, as we can see, there are many top-level American politicians who are ready to help.

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About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Ukrainian MP

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog or column authors.