What will happen if Trump doesn’t get the Nobel Prize?

I won’t speculate on whether the outside world is actually interested in the opinions of Ukrainian experts, but it is true that there’s a small chance the prize might be skipped this year. However, doing so would carry serious reputational risks for the committee.

1. The Nobel Committee understands that skipping the prize would seriously damage its reputation. It was always possible to explain why figures like Arafat or Kissinger received the award at a given time. But not awarding the Peace Prize to anyone while wars are ongoing is impossible. Not giving the prize would be like saying out loud: “We were afraid of Trump.” I’m not sure the Nobel Committee in Oslo is ready for that.

2. At the core of Trump’s perhaps even obsessive desire to receive the prize lies not only pride and narcissism, as most experts assess.

At the core is his dislike of Obama, who, in Trump’s view, received the prize for nothing. Trump wants the Nobel more for domestic purposes, possibly much more than for international recognition.

Obama is not just Trump’s alter ego (in the psychoanalytic sense). Obama embodies everything Trump opposes. He represents the culture of apologies that Trump launched a crusade against, largely dismantling that very culture.

3. For Trump, the Nobel Peace Committee seems to be part of that same culture of apologies. He will view it as an enemy (one way or another), even if awarded the prize. After all, we’ve seen something similar in many other cases.

4. The likelihood of Trump receiving the prize this year is relatively low. However, whether he gets it or not will not affect his policy toward Europe. As I’ve already noted, Trump decided to postpone Russia’s proposals regarding the Arctic shelf and rare-earth metals for later.

He is currently focused on blocking Russia’s access to Europe’s premium oil and gas market. This strategy seems likely to succeed over the next year, and this goal clearly outweighs any medal he could receive in Oslo.

5. His second goal is to partially restrict Russia on global markets. I think the Russians could lose up to 20% of their oil revenues over the year, mainly due to losing the more profitable refined oil markets. The main reason for this will be the work of Ukrainian drones.

The Nobel Prize for Trump is the cherry on top, not the main driver of his decisions. The key is that the state shouldn’t adopt the idea of negotiating with the Nobel Committee at its level - because there’s no win-win scenario here.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.