Hot tub for Trump at NATO summit: losing strategy or way to hold on?

International information and analytical community Resurgam explains.

At the same time, Japan, Australia, and South Korea did not return to the summit, having already canceled their visits due to Trump's speculation about their presence, previous reports of his absence, and the inability to hold scheduled meetings.

Countries at the NATO summit, as well as at the G7, chose to limit Trump's interaction with participants as much as possible to minimize scandals at the event.

So, in addition to the fact that Trump will be at only one session of the event, the final communiqué, according to the Dutch press, will consist of only three coordinated paragraphs, when last year it was 44, and the year before that - 90.

Although, according to other open data sources, which I have not yet been able to confirm or deny, the communiqué may be larger due to the added references to Ukraine.

This is probably due to hopes that Trump's good humor at Rutte's flattery and the decision of countries to increase defense spending to 5% should encourage Trump to “agree to the majority's request.”

Therefore, there are likely to be two draft communiqués, and which one will be chosen will depend on how the situation develops during the summit.

Everyone is especially waiting to see whether Trump will meet with Zelenskyy and what the tone of the meeting will be. If the meeting takes place, the Ukrainian president will try to convince Trump to sell arms for “European-Ukrainian funds.” Although the likelihood of success in reaching an agreement is seen as “low.”

Does the NATO summit have positive decisions for Ukraine?

Despite the fact that, due to the need to keep Trump in the orbit of common interests, this summit will be the shortest and too moderate, there are still positive decisions for Ukraine.

In addition to the substantial assistance from the Netherlands and the United Kingdom announced at the summit, the summit brings three strategic decisions closer:

The first is to switch partner support to the Danish model, which is becoming increasingly popular.

More and more countries are joining in to help Ukraine by financing orders from the Ukrainian defense industry, which not only allows for faster injection of funds into the economy and cheaper realization of orders and arms transfers, but also makes the Ukrainian defense market attractive despite the war.

The second is the approach to the implementation of the “Estonian model”. According to the theses of Rutte's press conference, along with an increase in defense spending, countries will increase their support for Ukraine to 0.25% of their GDP.

Third, Rutte confirmed that NATO countries will provide 35 billion in military aid in 2025.

According to Rutte, the new data shows that European and Canadian allies have stepped up their efforts and have already pledged to provide Ukraine with additional military aid worth more than 35 billion euros, despite the fact that they initially announced 20 billion euros.

Let me remind you that $40 billion as a political commitment was agreed upon at the last NATO summit, but this included the US share (before Trump was elected).

Therefore, 35 billion euros from Europe and Canada indicate that European countries have compensated for the lack of the US share in 2025 in terms of aid.

So the situation is such that the “warm bath for Trump” limits both the summit and support for Ukraine, but on the other hand, NATO countries (outside the United States) are trying to compensate for losses and increase support for Ukraine by making individual decisions.