Putin not ready to negotiate, Trump lacks tools to pressure him

Of course, it would be nice to be proven wrong. But based on what we know now, a ceasefire remains a highly unlikely scenario. Why?

The expectations of the Russian dictator from the Americans are clear. First and foremost, pressure on Ukraine — to push us to continue discussions with the Russians on “peace initiatives” based on the conditions put forward last week in Istanbul.

As I’ve written many times, Putin’s demands are political. That means they can only be achieved through negotiations. Seizing more territory won’t lead to Ukraine’s disarmament or legitimize Moscow’s claims to Europe as a “sphere of vital interest.” The only way to reach those goals is through agreements forced at the negotiating table. That’s what the Russians are aiming for, which is why they’ll keep pressuring Ukraine through every available channel — including the Americans.

"Second, there’s the issue of redrawing spheres of influence — a kind of “new Yalta,” echoing the 1945 Yalta Conference where, according to legend, the USSR and the U.S. carved up the world."

Since the U.S. isn't even considering such an arrangement, the only way to elevate the idea to the level of serious discussion is through a one-on-one conversation. That’s why a bilateral meeting between Putin and Trump is a strategic goal for the Kremlin. It would be framed by a broader push to “normalize” Russia, which has become a global pariah over the course of the war, and to “de-Ukrainianize” U.S.-Russia relations — essentially, pushing the war in Ukraine out of the core of Washington-Moscow dialogue.

Trump’s expectations are also clear: he simply wants to stop dealing with the issue and doesn’t want the U.S. to keep spending money on it.

America’s long-term strategic priority vis-à-vis Russia hasn’t changed: Russia remains the only country on Earth with a nuclear arsenal capable of destroying the United States and the rest of the world. China doesn’t have that capability — nor does anyone else. That’s why Washington sees reducing tensions with Moscow as a key part of its national security strategy.

So, the only real outcome of any phone call between Trump and Putin today would likely be a joint statement calling for the continuation of negotiations in the Istanbul format — and a vague commitment to meet sometime in the future.

Because the truth is, Putin isn’t ready for peace, a ceasefire, or even a truce — and Trump doesn’t have the tools to force his hand.

Source

About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, People's Deputy of Ukraine.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.