Unchanged territorial ambitions: ISW analyzes Medvedev's speech on Ukraine

This is according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Medvedev declared both banks of the Dnipro River as Russian territory, referring to Ukraine as Russia.

ISW noted that despite the Russian occupation of the left bank of the Kherson region, Medvedev defined all the territories on the left bank of the Dnipro River and many territories on the right bank of the Dnipro River as “integral” to Russia’s “strategic historical borders.”

The analysts highlighted Medvedev's use of a hypothetical English-language map of Eastern Europe, published on his Telegram channel in July 2022. The map, showing parts of western Ukraine under the control of Hungary, Poland, and Romania, aligns with the Kremlin's narrative of "territorial disputes" in Ukraine's west, aiming to strain Ukraine's relations with Western neighbors.

"The fact that Medvedev reused a map from 2022 underscores that the Kremlin’s maximalist territorial objectives have remained unchanged since the beginning months of the war," ISW stated.

Medvedev echoed President Putin's assertion that the borders of the Russian Federation have no end. Medvedev claimed that the more “powerful” a state is, the “further its strategic frontiers extend beyond its state borders” and the larger the state’s sphere of “economic, political, and socio-cultural influence.” Analysts believe this signals Russia's unwillingness to let Ukraine remain an independent state.

ISW cautioned that “Medvedev’s February 22 and March 4 statements suggest that the existence of a Ukrainian rump state in Kyiv Oblast — even after a hypothetical Russian-led negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine — may be temporary and subject to future Russian attacks.”

The subordination of the Ukrainian people is crucial for the Russian Federation, according to analysts.

Medvedev's speech raises concerns about potential Kremlin intentions to attack Poland, Finland, Romania, or Moldova.

• In late 2023, Medvedev announced Russia's intention to seize Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv. 
• In January, he asserted that the war's reason is Ukraine's existence, irrespective of its political regime.