Ukrainian 'steel porcupine' requires all of Europe to step up

It is evident that Ukraine’s accession to NATO is impossible before the war ends, and the Kremlin will never agree to the deployment of European peacekeeping contingents. So, what options remain?

The general concept was recently outlined by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “Ukraine must be turned into a steel porcupine, indigestible to its enemies.”

These words were spoken immediately after an allies’ meeting in London, suggesting that specific mechanisms are still being refined. Much depends on the role of the United States in this process and how long Washington will continue trying to “drag” Putin into negotiations.

It is clear that Ukraine is no longer a priority for the new U.S. administration. And this is not just because President Trump mentioned the war in Ukraine only at the very end of his address to Congress. He has repeatedly stated that a war in Europe is Europe’s problem. The U.S. is “tired” of playing the role of the world’s policeman and now demands that Europeans resolve their security issues on their own. This means that even if new arms supplies from the U.S. do arrive, they are unlikely to come soon—and certainly not for free.

"An optimistic scenario for Ukraine looks like this: the U.S. officially ends direct military aid (which has already happened) but allows Europe to purchase American weapons for Ukraine."

Can Europe take on this role? It is clear that the resources exist: European countries can negotiate arms purchases with Washington and expand their own production capacity for military equipment and ammunition. And it seems they have finally realized their own vulnerability to the inevitable threat of new military aggression.

Recent events confirm this:

• Ursula von der Leyen has announced a European rearmament program worth €800 billion.
• Next Monday, Germany will hold an emergency parliamentary session, where constitutional restrictions on defense funding may be lifted.
• European countries are, for the first time, seriously discussing their own defense potential rather than just issuing declarative support for Ukraine.

"Ukraine must become a key element of this new security system."

In practice, this is the most realistic security guarantee format for Ukraine:

• Full integration into the European defense system.
• Strengthening the army, which remains the only combat-ready force on the continent with real experience in modern warfare.
• Building a multi-layered defense complex, including ten-kilometer-wide minefields along the front line, modern fortifications, a large-scale air defense system to protect cities and critical infrastructure, and expansion of long-range missile and ammunition production.

This is the “steel porcupine” model that the European Commission president refers to. It is a realistic goal that both Ukraine and its European allies can achieve.

“Cherkasy will resist,” says the captain of the Ukrainian ship in the famous film of the same name.

It seems that Europe is finally joining this resistance alongside Cherkasy.

Source

About the author: Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, member of the Ukrainian Parliament.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by authors of blogs or columns.