Ukraine’s June 1 strike shakes Russia ahead of Istanbul talks — Resurgam

In the latest commentary, Resurgam praises the strike for targeting strategic assets deep inside Russian territory, saying it “surpasses any operation by foreign forces known to me,” citing the level of difficulty and impact on Russia’s nuclear deterrence infrastructure.

Military impact

According to Ukraine’s official reports, 34% of Russia’s cruise missile-carrying bombers were damaged in the strike. Resurgam notes that even the loss of one strategic bomber is significant, as these aging aircraft are considered “priceless” due to Russia’s inability to replace them.

Video evidence suggests that priority targets were chosen based on military value and technical condition. “Ukraine inspires and sets the trend for cheap asymmetric capabilities,” Resurgam wrote, comparing the strike to tactics used against Russia’s naval fleet.

Geopolitical fallout

The operation dealt a blow not just to Russia’s military, but to its global image. “Ukraine has demonstrated Moscow's vulnerability to the 'club' of geopolitical leaders,” Resurgam said, undermining the aura of invincibility surrounding Russia’s nuclear forces.

Restoring faith in asymmetry

The attack also helped shift public perception. “The media field was overloaded with statements about the 'doom of Ukraine',” Resurgam observed. But since June 1, the belief in asymmetrical actions' effectiveness has been fueled again, reviving confidence in Ukraine’s ability to strike back with limited resources.

Psychological and diplomatic effects

Resurgam compares the strike to a modern version of the Doolittle Raid, but with both psychological and real military consequences. The timing, just before the Istanbul talks, is especially damaging to Russia’s image.

“The Moscow delegation is going to the negotiations with a broken 'state of invincibility',” he noted. With Ukrainian success dominating headlines, Russia enters diplomatic talks in a weakened position, lacking the leverage it once had.

What comes next

While Moscow is likely to seek retaliation, it faces tough choices: a diplomatic boycott of the Istanbul talks would trigger global backlash, while immediate military escalation is risky and requires time.

“For now, the Ukrainian success has deprived Moscow of the arguments to 'recognize realities', because 'new realities' have been created,” Resurgam concluded.