Ukraine's 'exhaustion' is lie

For this year, various institutions forecast nominal GDP from 8.5 to 9 trillion hryvnias, which, it's easy to calculate, is over $200 billion.

This doesn't account for dollar inflation, but nevertheless GDP has been steadily growing since 2022. And this is despite a colossal outflow of the most economically active population, strikes on energy, maritime and railway infrastructure. There are significantly fewer people, electricity is available every other time, but GDP is recovering.

You'll say that statistics are a kind of state lie, you can't spread numbers on bread. 

Fine, let's look at the material world in which Ukrainians live — housing, cars, restaurants.

At the beginning of 2023, rent for one-bedroom apartments in Kyiv was around 10,000 hryvnias/month. December 2025 - approximately 16,000 hryvnias, in summer it reached 18,000-20,000. This, among other things, means that people have money to rent housing. This fact is also confirmed by state statistics — real wage growth consistently exceeds inflation:

• 2023: +3.7%
• 2024: +15.6%
• 2025: +3.9% (forecast)

The only thing is, this is against the backdrop of declining real monetary compensation for military personnel. That's where the real exhaustion is. 

Cars. In 2023, primary registrations of new passenger cars increased by approximately 60.6%. In 2024, 14% more new cars were registered.

"Data by months for 2025 demonstrates sales growth in year-on-year comparison. In September 2025, Ukrainians purchased over 6,800 new cars — that's about 20% more than in September 2024. In October 2025 — about 7,300 (+34% compared to October 2024). In November 2025 — about 8,300 new cars, which is approximately 58% more than in November 2024."

In short, 2025 overall also demonstrates positive annual dynamics, growth in volumes of new cars almost every month compared to 2024. Is this "exhaustion"?

Restaurants. Here there should be total fear of the draft centers and sitting at home since 2024. But no. For example, in Kyiv up to 215 establishments were opened (restaurants/bars/coffee shops/street food).

Net growth across Ukraine in 2025 amounted to approximately 2,728 establishments. This is significantly less than in the previous year, but quite corresponds to realities. A decline is possible going forward, but it's not visible yet.

***

Thanks to foreign aid and the efforts of Ukrainians themselves, Ukraine is growing economically despite the war, despite serious but not critical problems. What can be said for certain — there's no reason to talk about any exhaustion from war here.

Yes, Russia has now thrown all its forces at our destruction, but it's not succeeding in this at all.

Yes, there is tension and uncertainty, but the economy is definitely not an argument in favor of capitulation (nor is anything else). On the contrary, this is a strong argument for continued counter-resistance to Russia's attacks, testifies to the country's viability, the effectiveness of its partners and the availability of resources both for the relatively calm life of the rear and for ensuring active combat operations. 

Source

About the author. Ihor Lutsenko, journalist, soldier of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The editorial office does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.