Ukraine to play key role in new European security system: Military experts on major threats and how to overcome them

These views were shared by experts during a roundtable on Ukraine's role in shaping the European security and defense system, held at the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center on March 28, Espreso TV reports.

Europe is stepping up to take on the U.S.'s role in military planning for Ukraine, signaling a new level of cooperation. Mykola Knyazhytskyi, a member of parliament and a Supervisory Board member of the Consortium, stated, "This is replacing American military coordination in strategic and operational planning for military actions in Ukraine and preparing for the presence of a European contingent on Ukrainian soil. This marks a shift in relations between leading European countries and Ukraine to a de facto military alliance."

At the same time, Knyazhytskyi stressed that Europe needs to build its own powerful armed forces capable of conducting full-scale combat operations without U.S. involvement.

Europe understands the threats but still lacks the speed, dynamism, and synergy needed in military and defense efforts across EU countries. "We can't say that we've already created a common defense and security space within the European Union," said Valeriy Chaly, Chairman of the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center, and former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary. In his view, Ukraine needs to shape its strategy with a focus on the EU, not the U.S., and figure out how to coordinate its actions to tackle an ongoing threat.

Experts pointed out that Russia is preparing for further invasions, and a potential “freeze” of the war in Ukraine could only play into those plans.

According to Valeriy Chaly, the possibility of Russia moving from threats to actual use of force remains a real concern, even in the coming year.

“During peace talks in Ukraine, preparations could be underway for testing or the next land invasion of Europe,” he noted.

Oleksiy Yizhak, co-founder of the Defense Information Consortium and representative of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, also pointed out the risks. He believes that Russia may soon test how its “escalation steps” work, not only in Ukraine but also in other countries, such as the Baltics. Therefore, Europeans need to combine efforts and resources to respond quickly to security challenges: the tools to confront these threats are available; they just need to be unified.

Valentyn Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies and co-founder of the Defense Information Consortium, shared his view on the timing of a possible Russian invasion.

“If the war in Ukraine freezes, Russia will be ready to launch an attack on NATO countries around 2027. If the current U.S. policy continues, then it could happen as early as 2026,” he predicted.

Badrak stressed that the Ukrainian army is currently the only combat-ready military force in Europe. He believes only large-scale military cooperation and an open exchange of technologies can resist Russia's aggressive plans. According to him, cooperation on creating a new generation of nuclear weapons is one area where Ukraine can assist its European partners. Other areas of potential military cooperation include the production of ballistic missiles, satellite systems, and more.

Valery Borovyk, Chairman of the Board of the Alliance “New Energy of Ukraine,” also warned against illusions regarding a large-scale European military presence in Ukraine.

“Nobody wants to go to war with Russia. There may be some special forces units here, but there is no question of tens of thousands of soldiers, and there won’t be — unless Ukraine accepts extremely unfavorable peace terms,” he concluded.

That’s why Ukraine should focus on its own breakthrough technologies and innovations in defense, and work with partner countries to create new defense solutions.

During the roundtable, experts also discussed the content of the European Commission's recently presented “White Paper for European Defense – Readiness 2030” and the role of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Europe's future defense system.

Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network and co-founder of the Defense Information Consortium, stated that the Ukrainian military will become the core of Europe's future deterrent force, or European defense force.

“We say we want to be in the European Union by 2030. This means that our security vision should align with Europe’s. While it might seem like the war will soon end, the reality on the battlefield, along with insights from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, suggests we must prepare for a long war, build up our forces, and strengthen our competencies. And, of course, we need to unite Europe, explaining that we must build our European army together,” Mykhailo Samus emphasized.

Maximum interaction and integration in the defense industry are essential for European countries to tackle upcoming challenges.

“The EU must become an alliance of democratic values and weapons, with the ability to effectively protect these values,” said Serhiy Zgurets, CEO of Defense Express and co-founder of the Defense Information Consortium.

Ukraine will play a key role in the new European security system.

“Ukraine has the largest army in Europe with real combat experience. It is Ukraine that defends the eastern flank, where the greatest threats to European security lie. Any European defense system would be impossible without Ukraine,” Mykola Knyazhytskyi concluded.

The roundtable was organized by the Defense Information Consortium, which brings together leading analysts from Ukrainian and international research centers, including the National Institute for Strategic Studies, the Defense Express Media and Consulting Company, the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research, the New Geopolitics Research Network, and others.

• Colonel Andriy Biletskyi, commander of Ukraine's Third Separate Assault Brigade, suggested that European countries should cover half of the costs of maintaining the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which are necessary to deter Russian aggression.
• American diplomat John Herbst, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine (2003-2006) and Director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, believes Putin's goal is to establish effective political control over Ukraine, which contradicts Trump’s policy.