Ukraine strengthens control over Black Sea with drones and tactics

Ukraine is systematically implementing a military strategy to control the Black and Azov Seas. Based on the steps already taken, we can model what awaits the Russians next.

Simple dynamics: a year ago — unmanned surface vehicles( we were all witnesses), now—dozens simultaneously (again, we are witnesses), next year—hundreds at the same time? Let’s assume so. But let's break down each stage separately.

Initially, the Russian military ships were destroyed.

Now, the remnants of the combat fleet are hiding from Ukraine in bays, blocking the passage of civilian ships. This is just scrap metal waiting for an incoming strike. The Russians no longer have a fleet. They only use it for terror: come out of the bay for an hour—launch Kalibr missiles at cities—hide back.

A technological breakthrough has been implemented, allowing the destruction of the occupiers’ air defense systems in Crimea using inexpensive FPV drones.

Dozens of radars, launchers, and EW systems have been destroyed. The Russians are losing hundreds of millions of dollars in a hopeless battle.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces are also finishing off the Russian aviation over the Black Sea. It's an identical, hopeless situation for the Russians.

Suicide pilots on helicopters and planes still try to take to the air, but everyone already knows the outcome. Crimea cannot be held from the air. And air defense will soon be gone.

The actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces will lead to complete domination over the waters and skies of the Black and Azov Seas (drones from the air). Any movement of Russian ships or aircraft will be blocked.

This is simple mathematics. Ukrainian unmanned boats will act in the Black Sea in increasing numbers every month. My forecast: by the end of the year, hundreds of UAVs will be in the sea around the clock (FPV, air defense, strike modifications).

Without air defense and planes, movement through the Crimean Bridge and barges will become impossible. Crimea will turn into an isolated peninsula. Missiles, strike "wings," and FPV drones will freely fly over it.

Cheap long-range FPV drones, launched from surface drones along the entire coast of Crimea (west, south), will stitch through the entire peninsula.

Once the expensive air defense systems, depots, and airfields are destroyed, a new game will begin—finding other valuable targets on the peninsula. Right now, three to four FPVs on LBZ are chasing one Russian. The same will happen in Crimea.

The Crimea Bridge will be destroyed, opening a free route to the Sea of Azov. Crimea will be taken out of the game as a military unit.

The Sea of Azov is the key to victory in the war. As soon as unmanned "mother ships" enter there by the dozens, all the occupied coastline in southern Ukraine will become a kill zone 50-100 km deep into the occupied territories.

After that, substantive negotiations on the maps on the table can begin.

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About the author: Petro Shuklinov, journalist

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.