Ukraine shifts strike priorities to Russian Shahed drone factories

Russia has significantly ramped up its domestic production of these drones and expanded the number of launch sites. Russia is seeking to saturate Ukrainian defenses by increasing the number of drones aimed at a single settlement or target. Ukraine’s revised targeting strategy aims to disrupt the mass production of these UAVs at the source.

The current wave of strikes is focused on facilities producing both attack and reconnaissance drones, marking the beginning of a broader campaign to derail the growth of Russia’s drone manufacturing capacity. 

This shift is critical, as reports from Russian media and Western analysts suggest that Moscow may be capable of launching 500 to 1,000 drones per day — a potentially devastating figure as Ukraine is still building its layered air defense system.

While Ukraine has announced plans to produce its own interceptor drones, they are not yet operational. In the meantime, the low cost of Russian drones compared to the high cost of intercepting them has created a dangerous imbalance. Targeting drone production infrastructure is therefore a preventative strategy to mitigate the threat early on.

Ukrainian strikes have hit facilities producing Geran-2 and Geran-3 drones, as well as UAVs that use fiber-optic guidance — a technological edge that has posed a significant challenge to Ukrainian defense forces. This tactical pivot is logical: it aims to hit production lines rather than the end product.

Among the high-profile targets has been the Alabuga special economic zone — a key hub for UAV manufacturing — which has already suffered several damaging strikes by Ukraine’s military intelligence drones (HUR). Similarly, Ukrainian drones have struck facilities owned by the Kronstadt company in the Moscow region, which also manufactures UAVs. Russia was forced to acknowledge damage to its production capacity, including partial shutdowns. Another strike targeted a plant in Saransk, Russia’s only domestic producer of fiber optics — a critical component in FPV drones. In response, Moscow has reportedly begun exploring relocation of such manufacturing to China to shield it from further attacks.

Other strikes have targeted facilities producing batteries for UAVs, another vital link in the drone production chain. Ukrainian forces have also attacked factories that manufacture countermeasures against Ukrainian electronic warfare systems (EW). In response, Russian forces have begun deploying more sophisticated navigation systems, such as the Kometa-M phased array antenna, which has shown high resistance to jamming and enables precise satellite-guided UAV strikes. Russia is now equipping some drones with 12-element Kometa-M systems.

Until recently, up to 40% of Russian drones were being neutralized by Ukrainian EW. However, Russian adaptations — such as changing drone specifications to reduce vulnerability — have undermined the effectiveness of Ukrainian mobile fire teams.

Russian drones now fly higher, maneuver more aggressively, and change altitudes frequently, making detection and interception far more difficult. According to Col. (Ret.) Oleh Zhdanov, these drones are designed to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses.

Previously effective mobile fire teams are now struggling. According to Defense Express editor-in-chief Oleh Katkov, Russia has raised flight altitudes to levels where machine-gun-based defense systems are no longer effective — diminishing the impact of mobile groups and allowing more drones to reach their targets, as confirmed by Ukraine’s General Staff.

This growing threat has forced Ukraine’s intelligence services and military to adapt their tactics, with a renewed emphasis on striking deep into Russia’s defense industry.

Recently, the UK Ministry of Defence noted in an X (Twitter) update that after three years of war, Russia remains unable to protect its strategic military assets — a reality evidenced by frequent and successful Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian drones continue to hit Russian military and critical infrastructure, including regular attacks on oil refineries. For example, a fuel depot in Stavropol Krai recently caught fire following a drone strike. Another drone attack targeted a Lukoil-owned depot in Sochi, while explosions were reported near an oil refinery in Oryol on June 16.

These incidents highlight a sustained campaign against Russian oil infrastructure. According to UK intelligence, such strikes underscore Moscow’s persistent failure to defend key military sites and reflect the challenge of balancing homeland protection with sustaining operations at the front.

Importantly, Ukrainian drone strikes have been recorded across several regions inside Russia. Regardless of whether they hit their targets directly, these attacks have forced Russia to activate its "Kover" (Carpet) plan — shutting down large sections of airspace, resulting in massive economic losses. 

According to Russian sources, a single wave of drone attacks cost the economy 20 billion rubles. In July alone, blocked airports reportedly caused losses of up to 40 billion rubles.

Even near-miss attacks impose costs and disruptions. Russian media has increasingly acknowledged this impact — some outlets even speculate that President Zelenskyy is using these strikes to pressure Putin into withdrawing from Kharkiv region.

If conspiracy theorists are admitting the effectiveness of this strategy, it’s clearly hitting a nerve. According to Russian reports, Sheremetyevo Airport is on the brink of bankruptcy. Following a transport collapse, Transport Minister Roman Starovoit resigned — and shortly after, reportedly died by suicide. These developments underline the far-reaching success of Ukraine’s long-range drone strategy, which is not just about symbolism but is part of a deliberate, coordinated campaign.

The striking distance has also increased — now exceeding 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine’s borders. Ukrainian military intelligence and the armed forces are maintaining a high pace of attacks on Russian rear infrastructure and defense industry assets — all considered legitimate military targets.

Special Operations Forces (SOF) units and Ukraine’s military intelligence have carried out multiple successful operations against facilities of the Russian military-industrial complex. And all signs point to this strategy continuing.

Exclusively for Espreso

About the author. Dmytro Sniehyriov, military expert, co-chair of the Prava Sprava NGO.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.